NYM vs TOR prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.4 - NYM 4.8. NYM is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
TOR
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.4 — NYM 4.8
Actual
TOR 2 — NYM 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
FF36%90 mph19% whiff
ST32%75 mph31% whiff
SI20%90 mph8% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF45%94 mph15% whiff
FS30%83 mph40% whiff
SL25%88 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
76°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.036
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.6% EV
-196
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.3% EV
+162
ML HOME
-10.1% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-6.1% EV
-110
ML AWAY
+3.7% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.5 runs
42.4% win
TOR F5
2.5 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM22.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
George Springer TOR18.4%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Sean Manaea | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Manaea
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Christian Arroyo 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
RJ Schreck LFDAY-TO-DAY
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 51.6%
-11.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.3 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →