NYM vs TOR prediction for June 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.6 - NYM 5.4. NYM is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
TOR
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYM
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 4.6 — NYM 5.4
Actual
TOR 0 — NYM 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI35%95 mph14% whiff
FF19%96 mph24% whiff
ST17%85 mph23% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF52%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL9%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
85°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.2% EV
-175
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-25.4% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-15.2% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+14.1% EV
-120
ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.2% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.0 runs
49.0% win
TOR F5
2.5 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Carson Benge NYM23.7%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 6.4% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Lindor NYM19.4%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 6.5% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jackson Cluff SSDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Arjun Nimmala SSDAY-TO-DAY
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
RJ Schreck LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=280)
(Repeat game with corrected detail) TOTALS edge is primary: Model 9.96 total (62.3% over 7.5), market 7.5 (50% implied under). 14.1% edge on over. Kevin Gausman (4.71 Bayesian ERA, elevated, 8.0 K/9) vs Nolan McLean (4.35 Bayesian ERA, 8.0 K/9, B- 53.7%). Both pitchers mediocre, can't suppress runs. Rogers Centre (1.0 factor neutral). 85.4°F warm, 11.7 mph wind slightly IN (-3.2). Model adds runs. ZONE: YELLOW (50.1% WR totals) but 14.1% edge is actionable. CAUTION: Totals PENALIZE in SKIP calibration (49.6% WR, n=273), suggesting model totals unreliable. RESOLUTION: Play OVER 7.5 at reduced units (0.75) acknowledging zone weakness. Historical WR on 10-15% edge totals suggests 52-55% accuracy, not 62.3% as model projects.
Key Factors
- Gausman (4.71 ERA, 8.0 K/9) + McLean (4.35 ERA, 8.0 K/9) = both below-average starters
- Rogers Centre (1.0 factor) neutral park
- 85.4°F warm + 11.7 mph wind slightly IN = weather slightly suppresses
- Model 9.96 vs 7.5 = 2.46 run gap = actionable
Risk Factors
- Totals zone YELLOW (50.1% WR, n=280) — not strong
- SKIP calibration PENALIZE (49.6% WR, n=273) — suggests model unreliable on totals
- Historical 10-15% edge totals show ~52% accuracy, not 62% as model projects
TOTALS VALUE 14%ZONE YELLOW WEAKSKIP CALIBRATION WEAKPITCHER QUALITY MEDIOCREREDUCE UNITS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.1%
-40.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.2 pts
Total
7.5
+14.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →