NYM vs TOR prediction for July 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.6 - NYM 5.4. NYM is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -3.0 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
TOR
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYM
-3.0
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
TOR
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI35%95 mph14% whiff
FF19%96 mph24% whiff
ST17%85 mph23% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF52%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL9%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
91°F13 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.021
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +3.0
-38.0% EV
-556
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-27.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -3.0
+22.2% EV
+350
ML HOME
-14.8% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+9.2% EV
-105
ML AWAY
+6.7% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.0 runs
50.0% win
TOR F5
2.4 runs
36.0% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Carson Benge NYM19.7%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 6.4% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Francisco Lindor NYM16.2%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 6.5% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jackson Cluff SSDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Marcus Semien 2B10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B60-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Arjun Nimmala SSDAY-TO-DAY
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
RJ Schreck LFDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 55.8%
+22.2 pts
Run Line
-3.0
+22.2 pts
Total
8.0
+9.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →