NYM vs WSH prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 3.9 - NYM 5.2. NYM is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
WSH
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
NYM
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMWSH L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 3.9 — NYM 5.2
Actual
WSH 7 — NYM 16
Pick Results
A.J. Ewing OVER 0.5 RBIsbatter_rbiWIN+1.74u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
FF54%96 mph20% whiff
FC22%89 mph13% whiff
ST18%81 mph36% whiff
Jake Irvin R
WSH
FF26%92 mph20% whiff
SI24%92 mph6% whiff
CU24%77 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
97°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.04ERA
3.85FIP
9.61K/9
3.85BB/9
1.33WHIP
WSH
4.19ERA
4.67FIP
8.30K/9
4.09BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-45.2% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-26.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-17.8% EV
+104
ML HOME
-15.7% EV
+108
NRFI NRFI
+8.6% EV
+116
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
+8.2% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.0 runs
53.1% win
WSH F5
2.2 runs
33.0% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
54.1%
YRFI
45.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Jake Irvin | Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.161 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Jake Irvin
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Christian Scott | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Jake Irvin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE42.6% WR (n=5)
Christian Scott (3.73 ERA, B- grade, 28.6 K%) significantly outclasses Jake Irvin (6.38 ERA, B- grade). NYM beat WSH 16-7 yesterday in 12 innings (explosive win). Market is pricing WSH at +108, implying only 48.1% home prob. Model gives NYM 60.8% win prob. This is 6.4% AWAY ML edge. Away ML is typically RED, but this is high-quality pitcher mismatch (Scott 3.73 vs Irvin 6.38) PLUS recency (16-7 blowout yesterday). F5 ML also shows 5.7% edge to NYM. NRFI is 8.6% edge at 50.3% prob — strong. This is one of the few AWAY games with legitimate edge due to SP quality and momentum.
Key Factors
- Scott (3.73 ERA, B- grade, 28.6 K%) vs Irvin (6.38 ERA, B- grade, 23.2 K%) = 2.65 ERA gap (significant)
- NYM beat WSH 16-7 yesterday (explosive offense). Recency momentum strong; off-day unlikely.
- Hot weather (96.6F) adds ~0.3 runs, favoring explosive offense
- Market pricing NYM at only 55.9% implied, model 60.8% = 6.4% edge
- NRFI 8.6% edge at 50.3% prob — strong secondary play
Risk Factors
- Lindor (calf IL) and Alvarez (knee IL) remove star SS and C. -0.2 run impact.
- Away ML historically RED ZONE (45.1% WR, n=155), though this is higher quality spot
- WSH at home can still surprise; Irvin's 6.38 ERA may attract action for fade
PITCHER MISMATCHRECENCY BIASWEATHER IMPACTAWAY ADVANTAGEMOMENTUM
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 60.8%
-45.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-45.2 pts
Total
10.0
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →