NYM vs WSH prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.3 - NYM 5.0. NYM is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
WSH
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYM
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.3 — NYM 5.0
Actual
WSH 9 — NYM 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI37%95 mph15% whiff
FF18%96 mph19% whiff
ST15%85 mph17% whiff
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph18% whiff
FF17%91 mph20% whiff
ST14%80 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
99°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.006 Total: 1.000
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.00ERA
3.87FIP
9.42K/9
3.92BB/9
1.34WHIP
WSH
4.40ERA
4.69FIP
8.07K/9
4.04BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.2% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-13.9% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-11.0% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+116
ML AWAY
-6.2% EV
-143
F5_ML HOME
-5.3% EV
+122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.8 runs
48.8% win
WSH F5
2.3 runs
36.4% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
54.6%
YRFI
45.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
4%
CJ Abrams WSH26.6%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Nolan McLean | Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM23.7%
ISO: 0.127 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Foster Griffin
Mark Vientos NYM23.3%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Foster Griffin | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Jacob Young CFDAY-TO-DAY
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 54.8%
-37.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.2 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →