NYM vs WSH prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.4 - NYM 5.9. WSH is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
WSH
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYM
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
468
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.4 — NYM 5.9
Actual
WSH 8 — NYM 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zach Thornton L
NYM
Zack Littell R
WSH
SL27%88 mph16% whiff
FF27%91 mph7% whiff
FS20%84 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
97°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.023 Total: 1.010
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.94ERA
3.85FIP
9.35K/9
3.87BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
4.35ERA
4.68FIP
8.09K/9
3.95BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.6% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-21.5% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+13.1% EV
-102
F5 OVER 5.5
+11.0% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
+102
ML AWAY
-9.6% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
3.6 runs
49.8% win
WSH F5
3.1 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
6.7
NRFI
46.2%
YRFI
53.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.29
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.288 | Barrel: 12.6% | vs Zack Littell | Platoon: 1.12x
MJ Melendez NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Zack Littell | Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.154 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Zack Littell
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zach Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Zack Littell
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 50.3%
-34.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.6 pts
Total
9.5
+13.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →