NYM vs WSH prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.1 - NYM 4.3. WSH is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
WSH
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHNYM
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,221 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
WSH
246
Projected
WSH 4.1 — NYM 4.3
Actual
WSH 1 — NYM 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
NYM
SI32%92 mph9% whiff
SL23%86 mph31% whiff
FF22%92 mph22% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF34%96 mph16% whiff
KC24%85 mph41% whiff
SI17%96 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
67°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.028
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.08ERA
3.88FIP
9.24K/9
3.77BB/9
1.33WHIP
WSH
4.35ERA
4.68FIP
8.16K/9
3.91BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.2% EV
-185
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.3% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-7.0% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-7.0% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-2.9% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
42.2% win
WSH F5
2.2 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
14%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.320 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
Curtis Mead WSH10.5%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs David Peterson | Platoon: 1.12x
A.J. Ewing NYM10.3%
ISO: 0.092 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Cade Cavalli | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
A.J. Minter RP60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE55.2% WR (n=5)
No meaningful edge exists — model win probability (51.7% home vs 48.3% away) matches market implied probability exactly, with all edges <2.6%. Both starting pitchers are identical grade B-, similar K/BB rates. Game is fairly priced.
Key Factors
- Pitcher parity: Cavalli 22.6% K (B-) vs Peterson 22.3% K (B-) — functionally identical
- Command nearly identical: Cavalli 7.7% BB, Peterson 8.0% BB — both solid control
- Bullpen nearly equivalent: WSH 4.35 ERA vs NYM 4.08 ERA (0.27 edge to NYM, negligible)
- Home field standard: WSH 51.7% reflects typical 3-4pt home advantage, market prices this correctly
Risk Factors
- NYM missing multiple position players (10D IL: Lindor, Polanco, Alvarez, Mauricio) suggests lineup weakness not reflected in pitcher grades
- All edges <2.6% — no actionable market inefficiency
- Pickem lines indicate market confidence in fair pricing
DATA INTEGRITYNEUTRAL GAMEMARKET CORRECTNO EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 51.7%
-38.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.2 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →