NYY vs BAL prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.8 - NYY 5.0. NYY is favored with a 60.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.8 — NYY 5.0
Actual
BAL 3 — NYY 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF32%96 mph19% whiff
CH23%86 mph30% whiff
ST20%82 mph48% whiff
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF40%94 mph20% whiff
FS20%88 mph19% whiff
SL19%83 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
67°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.015 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.23ERA
3.72FIP
8.87K/9
3.55BB/9
1.26WHIP
BAL
4.26ERA
4.06FIP
9.50K/9
4.06BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-42.3% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-18.9% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-9.2% EV
+128
ML HOME
-8.1% EV
+128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.0% EV
+106
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-5.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.8 runs
50.9% win
BAL F5
2.1 runs
33.2% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
7%
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.372 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Adley Rutschman BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SSDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Dean Kremer SP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Rogers SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Jordan Westburg 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE46.6% WR (n=144)
Market has correctly priced the dominant pitcher mismatch (Weathers 3.27 ERA vs Young 4.7 ERA). No informational edge exists when the model and market align on the core value driver.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Weathers 3.27 ERA, B-grade, 27.5% K-rate vs Young 4.7 ERA, C+-grade, 14.0% K-rate — 1.43 ERA gap (ace-level advantage)
- Market correctly priced: -151 odds = 60.2% NYY, exactly matching model 60.2%
- Mild conditions (66.6°F, neutral wind, park 1.03x) — no weather edge
- All edges negligible: ML -0.9%, TOTAL -5.9% UNDER
- Bullpen fresh: No fatigue indicators for either team
Risk Factors
- Rare circumstance where model and market are perfectly aligned — suggests market is efficient on this matchup
- Pitcher mismatch is obvious (Weathers vs Young quality gap) — likely sharp money has already corrected any initial mispricing
- Camden Yards slight park factor (1.03) could inflate totals slightly, but market at 9.0 is reasonable
MODEL MARKET ALIGNMENTPITCHER MISMATCH TO AWAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.2%
-42.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-42.3 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →