NYY vs BAL prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.0 - NYY 4.3. NYY is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
BAL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.0 — NYY 4.3
Actual
BAL 2 — NYY 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF41%94 mph21% whiff
SI26%94 mph24% whiff
ST24%84 mph24% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF42%93 mph20% whiff
CH25%87 mph24% whiff
FC12%82 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
70°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.26ERA
3.78FIP
8.92K/9
3.52BB/9
1.26WHIP
BAL
4.16ERA
3.98FIP
9.53K/9
3.98BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.6% EV
-133
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-17.5% EV
+112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-14.9% EV
-115
ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-143
F5_ML AWAY
-10.2% EV
-130
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+6.3% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
41.4% win
BAL F5
2.2 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
58.5%
YRFI
41.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.406 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Grant Wolfram RP15-DAY-IL
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 51.4%
-33.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.6 pts
Total
8.5
+6.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →