NYY vs BAL prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.8 - NYY 4.8. NYY is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.8 — NYY 4.8
Actual
BAL 7 — NYY 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Fried L
NYY
FC22%92 mph25% whiff
SI22%93 mph17% whiff
FF17%95 mph23% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
SL30%87 mph32% whiff
SI30%95 mph10% whiff
CU21%84 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
76°F17 mph wind
HR: 0.960 Total: 0.975
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.18ERA
3.74FIP
8.85K/9
3.44BB/9
1.25WHIP
BAL
3.77ERA
3.96FIP
9.47K/9
3.93BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.0% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-10.9% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.2% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-9.2% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-4.8% EV
-167
ML HOME
-2.8% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.8 runs
52.2% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
32.5% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.97
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.367 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Cody Bellinger NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.177 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Trent Grisham NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Kyle Bradish | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Dylan Beavers RFDAY-TO-DAY
Grant Wolfram RP15-DAY-IL
Heston Kjerstad LF60-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP15-DAY-IL
Yaramil Hiraldo RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE45.6% WR (n=148)
Max Fried (3.14 ERA, 21.1% K rate) faces Kyle Bradish (5.22 ERA, 23.1% K rate) in a classic ace vs back-end mismatch, but BAL's park (-3%) and the model's tiny 0.8-run differential create a low-conviction spot where away ML falls into RED zone (45.6% WR despite -4.8% edge); no compelling edge beyond the raw pitcher gap.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Fried 3.14 ERA vs Bradish 5.22 ERA (2.08 gap favors away)
- Model 59.2% away vs market 62.4% = -4.8% edge on away ML (RED zone, 45.6% WR historical)
- NRFI 53.9% (first inning lean over) — no actionable edge detected
- Weather: 76°F, 12 mph in, humidity 32% = moderate pitcher advantage, neither team benefits
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone: 45.6% WR historically, this is the weakest profile in our data
- Park factor 1.03 works against NYY (home bias for BAL)
- Cold, wind blowing in: pitcher-friendly conditions favor both teams but edge is tiny
RED ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICTSMALL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.2%
-40.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.0 pts
Total
8.5
+1.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →