NYY vs BOS prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.5 - NYY 5.2. NYY is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
BOS
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BOS
346
Projected
BOS 4.5 — NYY 5.2
Actual
BOS 6 — NYY 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF41%94 mph21% whiff
SI27%93 mph19% whiff
ST21%84 mph22% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
FF50%96 mph22% whiff
SI23%95 mph10% whiff
FC16%88 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
77°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.6% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-13.0% EV
-104
ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-9.7% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+5.0% EV
-108
ML AWAY
+3.8% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.7 runs
44.7% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
39.9% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY25.7%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS20.6%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.08x
Jarren Duran BOS16.7%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Will Warren | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BOS8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE41.1% WR (n=11)
Elite SP matchup (both 9.2-9.5 K/9, B grades). Model away lean 54.7% slight but model-market gap narrow. NRFI edge 5.0% at 54.4% model prob is cleanest signal. Low-scoring game likely. Directional edge too thin for conviction.
Key Factors
- ELITE SP MATCHUP: Warren (9.5 K/9, B-, split-finger) vs Tolle (9.2 K/9, B) — nearly identical elite arsenals. Warren slight edge in K rate.
- Model away lean 54.7% — subtle signal, market near-neutral (-107/-107)
- NRFI edge 5.0% at 54.4% model prob — first inning avg 0.91 runs, both elite pitchers control. Cleaner signal than directional.
- Fenway park 1.024 (slight HR boost) but dominated by elite pitching; game likely low-scoring
- OVER 8.5 edge 2.9% (55.6% model prob) — totals disabled, minor signal
Risk Factors
- Away ML falls into RED ZONE historically (41.1% WR) — despite model edge, road favorites underperform
- Elite SP matchups often tight outcomes; variance dominates
- Fenway could elevate scoring more than expected (1.024 factor)
ELITE SP MATCHUPRED ZONE AWAYNRFI STRONG EDGELOW SCORING GAME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 54.7%
-40.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.6 pts
Total
8.5
+2.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →