NYY vs BOS prediction for June 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.6 - NYY 5.4. NYY is favored with a 63.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
BOS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.5% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 3.6 — NYY 5.4
Actual
BOS 4 — NYY 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF43%97 mph16% whiff
SL17%89 mph35% whiff
CH13%86 mph15% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF32%93 mph27% whiff
SI28%92 mph5% whiff
CH25%84 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
69°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.054 Total: 1.030
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.8% EV
-175
ML HOME
-22.6% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+19.5% EV
+146
F5_ML HOME
-17.1% EV
-102
ML AWAY
+13.4% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
+5.8% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.7 runs
51.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x
Amed Rosario NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BOS8 injured
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE42.4% WR (n=5)
Game already final (BOS 4, NYY 1). Model predicted 63.6% away win but BOS dominated convincingly — clear model FAILURE. Ace Cole (3.91 ERA, 22.5% K-rate) vs. middling Bennett (4.01 ERA, 20.8% K-rate) should favor away, but BOS bullpen (3.9 ERA) + home field + NYY injuries (Judge, Grisham, Stanton IL) overwhelmed the pitcher edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality near-parity: Cole 3.91 ERA, 22.5% K-rate vs Bennett 4.01 ERA, 20.8% K-rate — marginal advantage neither way
- Bullpen edge BAL: NYY bullpen 3.36 ERA (1.339 quality) vs BOS 3.9 ERA (1.154 quality) — but limited by recent usage
- Home field + injuries: NYY missing Judge, Grisham, Stanton — BOS fresh at Fenway
- Market pricing: -117 away (54.1% implied) vs model 61.3% — 7.2% gap suggests model ignoring lineup gaps
- AWAY ML RED zone: Historical 44.2% WR on similar profiles — model systematically overrates away favorites
Risk Factors
- AWAY ML zone: 44.2% WR in RED zone, this pick contradicts zone profitability
- Game already final: BOS won 4-1, confirming model failure on directional call
- High edge 10-15% range: 16.7% WR historically in this bucket (severe overconfidence)
DATA INTEGRITYRED ZONEPITCHER MISMATCHGAME COMPLETEDHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 63.6%
-47.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.8 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →