NYY vs BOS prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.2 - NYY 4.2. BOS is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
BOS
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.2 — NYY 4.2
Actual
BOS 5 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF44%94 mph22% whiff
SL25%86 mph27% whiff
SI15%93 mph17% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC21%88 mph13% whiff
FF20%92 mph12% whiff
ST19%85 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.024
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.6% EV
-189
F5_ML AWAY
-10.7% EV
-108
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.8% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.2% EV
+155
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-5.9% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-5.0% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS22.8%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Carlos Rodón | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Amed Rosario NYY22.4%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE55.3% WR (n=133)
NYY away at BOS -112 creates competitive game: model projects 51.5% home win vs market 52.9% implied, only -2.6% edge. Sonny Gray (B-, 3.19 ERA) slightly better than Carlos Rodón (B-, 4.0 ERA), but away team underdog context and NYY injuries (Judge, Stanton both OUT) create neutral-to-negative expected value. No actionable edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge BOS: Gray 3.19 ERA (B-) vs Rodón 4.0 ERA (B-) — edge to home but modest, 0.81 ERA gap
- NYY injuries CRITICAL: Aaron Judge (RF, 10d ribs) and Giancarlo Stanton (DH, 10d calf) both OUT — estimated -1.0 to -1.5 run swing for visiting team
- Weather: 73.7F, 5.1 mph tail wind, neutral at Fenway
- Bullpens: NYY 3.36 ERA (elite) vs BOS 3.90 ERA — advantage to away team but negated by lineup injuries
- F5 edge: Model 8.8% on OVER 4.5 suggests early scoring possible, but not actionable
Risk Factors
- NYY injuries (-1.0 run swing) make this a disadvantaged road team despite good bullpen. Market fairly reflects this.
- Minimal edge (-1.4%) + injury uncertainty = SKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 51.7%
-33.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.6 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →