NYY vs BOS prediction for June 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.6 - NYY 4.9. NYY is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
BOS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,485 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BOS
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF43%97 mph16% whiff
SL17%89 mph35% whiff
CH13%86 mph15% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF32%93 mph27% whiff
SI28%92 mph5% whiff
CH25%84 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
68°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.029
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.6% EV
-204
ML HOME
-22.8% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-18.8% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+18.4% EV
+168
ML AWAY
+16.5% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-12.7% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
49.4% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.4%
YRFI
45.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Jake Bennett | Park: 1.08x
Willson Contreras BOS28.2%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BOS8 injured
Romy Gonzalez 1B60-DAY-IL
Jovani Moran RP15-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.9%
-47.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.6 pts
Total
8.0
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →