NYY vs CLE prediction for June 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.2 - NYY 5.2. NYY is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
CLE
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYY
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.9% (2,222 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.2 — NYY 5.2
Actual
CLE 5 — NYY 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF42%94 mph22% whiff
SI26%93 mph20% whiff
ST22%84 mph24% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
ST26%87 mph43% whiff
FF25%97 mph25% whiff
CU22%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
86°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.068 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.50ERA
3.75FIP
8.54K/9
3.40BB/9
1.27WHIP
CLE
3.58ERA
3.53FIP
10.70K/9
3.37BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-27.8% EV
-208
F5_ML HOME
-22.9% EV
-132
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-19.9% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-17.9% EV
+172
ML HOME
-17.8% EV
-123
F5_ML AWAY
+15.8% EV
+106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.9 runs
50.9% win
CLE F5
2.2 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.365 | Barrel: 19.6% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan McMahon NYY27.2%
ISO: 0.161 | Barrel: 6.9% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY24.1%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Payton Henry CDAY-TO-DAY
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE41.5% WR (n=6)
Even pitcher matchup (Will Warren 3.48 ERA, CLE vs Gavin Williams 3.46 ERA, NYY — both B-grade mid-tier aces) means home field value is questioned. Model projects 56.9% away (NYY +106), 12.5% edge. Weather is key: Progressive Field at 85.8F, open air, 9.1 mph wind out (+4.7 tail wind), thin altitude (1834 DA), 1.036 total multiplier. This adds 0.4-0.5 runs and inflates home team scoring advantage. Market prices CLE at -123 (55.2%), model sees away dog value at 12.5%. F5 edge even stronger (15.8% away). Zone YELLOW but away underdog value in even matchup + weather support edge. LEAN away.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality identical: Warren 3.48 ERA (24.8% K) vs Williams 3.46 ERA (28% K) — both B-grade, sub-3.50, excellent command
- Weather/altitude edge: Progressive Field thin air (1834 DA), 85.8F, 9.1 mph wind out (+4.7), HR mult 1.068, total mult 1.036 adds 0.4-0.5 runs to over
- Market -123 CLE prices home field; model 56.9% away edges away dog value at +106. Model total 9.4 vs market 7.5 = +1.9 under projection
- F5 edge stronger: 15.8% away F5 edge at 56.2% suggests early scoring advantage away
Risk Factors
- Zone is YELLOW (41.5% WR, small sample n=6) — not a high-confidence zone despite directional alignment
- Even pitcher matchup means small edges; zone data suggests away combos underperform (RED zone 44.5% WR for away)
- Market -123 is modest line move; home field advantage in baseball is real (~3% effect)
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORLEAN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.9%
-17.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-17.9 pts
Total
7.5
+9.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →