NYY vs CLE prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.7 - NYY 4.7. CLE is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CLE
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYY
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
CLE
468
Projected
CLE 5.7 — NYY 4.7
Actual
CLE 2 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF48%96 mph12% whiff
SL15%89 mph38% whiff
CH15%86 mph15% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF32%93 mph17% whiff
FC26%88 mph20% whiff
SI18%93 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
87°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.019
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.48ERA
3.78FIP
8.65K/9
3.49BB/9
1.27WHIP
CLE
3.57ERA
3.51FIP
10.65K/9
3.42BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-26.3% EV
+134
F5_ML AWAY
-24.2% EV
-135
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-23.7% EV
-104
ML AWAY
-22.4% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-20.0% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
+17.4% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
34.6% win
CLE F5
3.3 runs
52.2% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
47.3%
YRFI
52.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.16
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.358 | Barrel: 19.4% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan McMahon NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Payton Henry CDAY-TO-DAY
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE51.4% WR (n=216)
Model predicts CLE 60.5% at home with Slade Cecconi (5.31 ERA, B- grade) against Gerrit Cole (2.16 ERA, B grade elite command 0.82); Cole is objectively one of the best pitchers on today's slate, making 60.5% CLE favorable a DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE. This game shows model overweighting home field at expense of pitcher quality.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch EXTREME: Cole 2.16 ERA (B, K% 22.9%, stuff 0.329, command 0.82) vs Cecconi 5.31 ERA (B-, K% 18.1%, stuff 0.248, command 0.651)
- Cole is elite: 2.16 ERA is top-10 in MLB, command 0.82 is A-level; Cecconi is below-average with 5.31 ERA
- Home field overweighting: Progressive Field is neutral park (1.0 factor), no weather advantage (87F, slight headwind); home field alone shouldn't overcome 3+ run ERA gap
- Historical edge failure: 16% edge + 60% prob = worst-performing bucket (25% WR) per calibration data
Risk Factors
- Model integrity failure: If CLE actually wins this game, it suggests model's pitcher evaluation is broken OR there's critical lineup data not reflected in grades
- High edge trap: 15-25% edges have 25% historical WR — near coin flip despite model's extreme confidence
- Cole is available: No injury concerns flagged; Cole should be 100% healthy
DATA INTEGRITYHIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 60.5%
-20.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-20.0 pts
Total
8.5
+13.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →