NYY vs CLE prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.6 - NYY 4.9. NYY is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
CLE
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLENYY
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 4.6 — NYY 4.9
Actual
CLE 4 — NYY 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF44%94 mph22% whiff
SL28%86 mph24% whiff
SI15%93 mph15% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
FF32%94 mph21% whiff
CH25%85 mph43% whiff
SI16%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
79°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.988
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.41ERA
3.75FIP
8.63K/9
3.49BB/9
1.28WHIP
CLE
3.55ERA
3.59FIP
10.45K/9
3.43BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.1% EV
-208
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-26.6% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+15.7% EV
-118
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-122
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.6% EV
+114
ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.6 runs
44.9% win
CLE F5
2.5 runs
41.4% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
11%
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.400 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.97x
Amed Rosario NYY24.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Payton Henry CDAY-TO-DAY
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE50.1% WR (n=312)
Market significantly underpricing run-heavy environment: Model 9.53 runs vs market 7.5 total. Messick (2.59 ERA) is solid but Rodón (3.11 ERA) is comparable; edge driven by weather (wind 11mph IN, suppressive) overcorrected down by market. F5 OVER 4.5 also +9.6% edge.
Key Factors
- Total edge 15.7%: Model projects 9.53 vs market 7.5 — 2.03 run swing, second-largest gap on slate. GREEN zone 50.1% base WR validates totals approach.
- SP comparison: Messick 2.59 ERA (B- grade, 26.6% K) vs Rodón 3.11 ERA (C+ grade, 25.7% K) — nearly matched. Edge NOT from SP.
- Weather underpriced: 11 mph wind blowing IN (suppressive, -11.3 mph tail wind) already factored by model but market total 7.5 suggests 0.5-run overestimate of suppression.
- F5 edge +9.6%: Model 51.2% (F5 over 4.5) vs market ~45% — early inning action solid. First 5 innings alone justify OVER play.
Risk Factors
- High edge (15.7%) in elevated probability zone — model overconfidence risk. Wait for calibration to cue down.
- Yankees missing Judge, Stanton (10-day IL) — lineup weakened. Not fully priced (-120) but impacts quality of runs scored.
- Messick at home, coming off strong recent outings — underrating home pitcher advantage possible.
WEATHER IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUEML VALUEGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 51.3%
-38.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.1 pts
Total
7.5
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →