NYY vs DET prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.7 - NYY 4.5. DET is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
DET
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETNYY
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (2,512 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
346
DET
357
Projected
DET 4.7 — NYY 4.5
Actual
DET 5 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
FF43%97 mph13% whiff
SL16%89 mph36% whiff
CH13%86 mph11% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
SI45%94 mph9% whiff
CU28%78 mph29% whiff
CH21%89 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
64°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.035
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-28.5% EV
-152
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-21.1% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-16.9% EV
-122
ML AWAY
-14.0% EV
-127
ML HOME
+8.1% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
+7.5% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.3 runs
36.7% win
DET F5
2.7 runs
47.7% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
14%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.97x
Kerry Carpenter DET30.0%
ISO: 0.270 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Gerrit Cole | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY29.6%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gerrit Cole
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
DET8 injured
Wenceel Perez RF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0YELLOW ZONE52.6% WR (n=7)
Gerrit Cole's 2.78 ERA and 22.9% K-rate vastly outclass Framber Valdez (4.42 ERA, 18.2% K-rate), but DET home field (+6.4% HR factor, cool 64.5F) and current +108 odds offer minimal value on the true favorite; lean only because of mismatch, not conviction.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch severe: Cole 2.78 ERA, 22.9% K-rate vs Valdez 4.42 ERA, 18.2% K-rate — ace vs back-end starter is 10-15pt swing
- DET home field: +6.4% HR multiplier, cool weather (64.5F) helps groundball pitchers (Cole's mix 43% FF). Park slightly favors DET.
- Market overvaluing DET underdog at +108 (48.1% implied) when model sees 52% NYY — 3.9% edge exists
- Bullpen: NYY 3.36 ERA (elite), DET 4.22 ERA (average) — late-game edge to NYY
- Model total 9.19 vs market 8.5 (0.69 edge) — slight OVER lean but not actionable
Risk Factors
- Cole on road (historically slight underperformance), recent usage unknown
- DET recent form not provided; could be momentum factor market sees
- Zone combo shows 57.3% WR but sample only 65 bets — modest validation
PITCHER MISMATCHML VALUEYELLOW ZONEINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.4%
-28.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-28.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →