NYY vs DET prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.5 - NYY 5.4. NYY is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
DET
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETNYY
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,543 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
DET
346
Projected
DET 4.5 — NYY 5.4
Actual
DET 3 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF44%94 mph22% whiff
SL25%86 mph26% whiff
SI16%93 mph16% whiff
Casey Mize R
DET
FF33%93 mph22% whiff
FS25%88 mph31% whiff
SL25%88 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
75°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.033
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.7% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-22.5% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+11.6% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-10.3% EV
-114
ML HOME
-8.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+2.9% EV
+146
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.8 runs
45.7% win
DET F5
2.5 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY24.5%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 18.3% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Dillon Dingler DET17.9%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Carlos Rodón | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Cody Bellinger NYY15.3%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Ryan McMahon 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Ali Sanchez CPATERNITY
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF10-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE47.2% WR (n=10)
Model projects 11.6% OVER edge at neutral calibration, but totals market is disabled (catastrophically unprofitable grade F). Away ML edge is knife-edge (0.5%) in RED zone. Skip ML entirely; treat totals edge with extreme skepticism given market breakdown.
Key Factors
- Mize (B grade, 9.3 K/9) outpitches Rodon (B-, 9.9 K/9, 13.2% BB rate) — slight DET SP edge, ~2% WP swing
- Comerica Park 6mph tailwind (1.033 mult) favors run production, supports OVER thesis
- Model projects 61.7% OVER prob (11.6% edge), but totals market grade F — DISABLE this recommendation
- NYY missing Judge (RF, 10-day IL ribs), Stanton (DH, 10-day IL calf) — lineup OPS reduction ~2-3%
- Away ML edge (0.5%) is knife-edge and RED zone (43.1% WR historically on away underdogs)
Risk Factors
- Totals both disabled (OVER 47.7% WR, UNDER 47.9% WR) — model cannot beat this market
- DET lineup still formidable (Dingler, Rice); Rodon's 13.2% BB rate is high but he struck out high
- 0.5% edge is within noise and statistically insignificant — market is likely correct
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTTOTALS DISABLEDBULLPEN FATIGUEINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 53.7%
-40.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.7 pts
Total
7.5
+11.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →