NYY vs DET prediction for June 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.3 - NYY 4.5. NYY is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
DET
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETNYY
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.3% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
346
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.3 — NYY 4.5
Actual
DET 2 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF28%96 mph17% whiff
CH23%86 mph34% whiff
ST20%81 mph44% whiff
Tarik Skubal L
DET
FF36%97 mph16% whiff
CH25%87 mph45% whiff
SI20%97 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
75°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.4% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-19.2% EV
-123
F5 OVER 3.5
+13.5% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+11.9% EV
+102
ML HOME
-11.0% EV
-133
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.6% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
38.7% win
DET F5
2.6 runs
47.0% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Dillon Dingler DET30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY27.6%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Tarik Skubal | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Torkelson DET25.5%
ISO: 0.151 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Tarik Skubal
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Ali Sanchez CPATERNITY
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF10-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=235)
Home ace Skubal (3.26 ERA, 26.7% K, B grade command) has clear control advantage over away Ryan Weathers (4.46 ERA). Model projects total of 8.79 runs vs market 7.5 line, creating 11.9% edge on OVER. Skubal's elite strikeout stuff and Weathers' mediocre command suggest lower-scoring game than model projects, but the specific total-over edge (11.9%) is strong enough to lean. Weather neutral (74.6°F, slight headwind), bullpen analysis favors unders (DET 4.22 ERA, NYY 3.36 ERA), but model's 8.79 total seems reasonable given lineup quality.
Key Factors
- Model total 8.79 vs market 7.5 = 1.29 run gap (17% difference). Model sees lineup quality NYY brings offsets home pitcher quality.
- Ace starter advantage (Skubal 3.26 ERA, B command vs Weathers 4.46 ERA) reflected in model but possibly under-weighted by market
- F5 edge 13.5% over (62.0% model) suggests early-inning runs expected even vs ace; total over (11.9%) supportable
Risk Factors
- Total market historically weak (49.1% WR per calibration; over recently auto-disabled due to catastrophic losses). Caution warranted.
- Skubal is ace, but model projects 8.79 total — that's reasonable for DET (4.28 runs), so market may be correctly conservative
PITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 50.2%
-8.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.6 pts
Total
7.5
+11.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →