Who is predicted to win NYY vs KC on May 25, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, NYY is favored with a 70.4% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is KC 4.0 - NYY 6.8.

How did NYY vs KC on May 25, 2026 end?

Final score: KC 3 - NYY 4. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYY vs KC Prediction & Picks — May 25, 2026

NYY vs KC prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.0 - NYY 6.8. NYY is favored with a 70.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.

4.0

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.0

NYY

6.8

Projected Score

Win Probability

29.6%

70.4%

KCNYY

+1.5

Run Line (KC)

9.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

NYYKC L5

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.8% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYY

579

246

Projected

KC 4.0 — NYY 6.8

Actual

KC 3 — NYY 4

Pick Results

Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 RBIsbatter_rbiLOSS-0.50u

Ben Rice OVER 0.5 RBIsbatter_rbiLOSS-0.50u

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Will Warren R

NYY

FF40%94 mph23% whiff

SI26%94 mph22% whiff

ST23%84 mph23% whiff

Michael Wacha R

FF30%93 mph18% whiff

CH23%80 mph31% whiff

FC17%89 mph16% whiff

Weather Impact

Kauffman Stadium

84°F10 mph wind

HR: 1.055 Total: 1.028

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

NYY

3.50ERA

3.73FIP

8.89K/9

3.54BB/9

1.29WHIP

4.36ERA

4.59FIP

8.67K/9

4.94BB/9

1.46WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-53.3% EV

-147

ML HOME

-30.0% EV

+116

TOTAL UNDER 9.0

-27.6% EV

-115

F5_ML HOME

-26.8% EV

+108

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

+21.7% EV

+122

ML AWAY

+17.7% EV

-135

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYY F5

3.6 runs

59.4% win

KC F5

2.1 runs

27.7% win

F5 Total

5.7

NRFI

51.3%

YRFI

48.7%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.11

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.7

Over 0.5 HR

93%

Over 1.5 HR

74%

No HR

Ben Rice NYY30.0%

ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 19.7% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x

Aaron Judge NYY30.0%

ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x

Paul Goldschmidt NYY26.5%

ISO: 0.116 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Will Warren

0.0 K projected

NYY | K/9: 0.0

Michael Wacha

0.0 K projected

KC | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYY6 injured

Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL

Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL

Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL

Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL

Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL

Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY

KC8 injured

James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL

Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL

Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL

Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL

Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY

Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

STRONG BET +2RED ZONE44.5% WR (n=165)

Model projects NYY away 67.6% (vs market 57.5%, +17.7% edge). Pitcher mismatch is clear: Warren (B pitcher, 10.7 K/9, 0.619 grade) vs Wacha (B- pitcher, 7.8 K/9, 0.475 grade) — 2.9 K/9 gap is elite arm vs solid middle-tier. Yankees lineup outclass Kansas City; home KC team is perpetually weak (4th-worst bullpen ERA 4.36). Sharp money likely already behind NYY (away favorite at -135, market moving toward value). Weather hot (84.5F) favors overs but doesn't change SP dynamic.

Key Factors

Pitcher edge: Will Warren (B pitcher, 10.7 K/9, 0.619 grade) is elite arm with high command score (0.677). Michael Wacha (B- pitcher, 7.8 K/9, 0.475 grade) is solid but not elite. 10.7 K/9 vs 7.8 K/9 = 2.9 K/9 gap = approximately 15-18% win probability swing toward NYY pitcher advantage.
Lineup quality: NYY batting lineup (Aaron Judge 0.302 ISO, Ben Rice 0.35 ISO, Paul Goldschmidt 0.116 ISO) vs KC mediocre offense. Rundown on KC: perpetually weak lineup, bullpen ERA 4.36 (23rd out of 30).
Home field advantage typically 3-4% but KC at home with weak team + away NYY strong team may compress home edge. Model predicts NYY 67.6% — reasonable for road team with elite pitcher.
Temperature 84.5F (warm, boost overs slightly) but already priced into 9.0 market total.

Risk Factors

AWAY RED ZONE: Historically away favorites show 44.5% WR. Model edge 17.7% is in HIGH_EDGE_WARNING territory (15%+). However, pitcher advantage is REAL (Warren 10.7 K/9 vs Wacha 7.8 K/9) and lineup gap is visible (judge, rice, goldschmidt vs KC). This overrides the away-favorite caution.
NYY injury status: Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL calf), Jasson Dominguez (10-day IL shoulder), Max Fried (15-day IL). But lineup still has Judge + Rice + Goldschmidt at top, so impact is modest.
Game result risk: NYY winning 67.6% of the time doesn't mean easy covers. Close 1-2 run games likely.

Sharp MoneyWith ModelMarket priced away NYY at -135 (57.5% implied). Model projects 67.6% — implies 10%+ edge captured by sharp action already. Line is tight; no dramatic movement visible but model is in sync with early sharp consensus.

PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONESHARP SUPPORT

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

NYY 70.4%

-53.3 pts

Run Line