NYY vs KC prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.0 - NYY 6.8. NYY is favored with a 70.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
KC
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
NYY
6.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCNYY
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
579
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.0 — NYY 6.8
Actual
KC 3 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF40%94 mph23% whiff
SI26%94 mph22% whiff
ST23%84 mph23% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
FF30%93 mph18% whiff
CH23%80 mph31% whiff
FC17%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
84°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.50ERA
3.73FIP
8.89K/9
3.54BB/9
1.29WHIP
KC
4.36ERA
4.59FIP
8.67K/9
4.94BB/9
1.46WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-53.3% EV
-147
ML HOME
-30.0% EV
+116
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-27.6% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-26.8% EV
+108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+21.7% EV
+122
ML AWAY
+17.7% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.6 runs
59.4% win
KC F5
2.1 runs
27.7% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.350 | Barrel: 19.7% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY26.5%
ISO: 0.116 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Michael Wacha | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
KC8 injured
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Model projects NYY away 67.6% (vs market 57.5%, +17.7% edge). Pitcher mismatch is clear: Warren (B pitcher, 10.7 K/9, 0.619 grade) vs Wacha (B- pitcher, 7.8 K/9, 0.475 grade) — 2.9 K/9 gap is elite arm vs solid middle-tier. Yankees lineup outclass Kansas City; home KC team is perpetually weak (4th-worst bullpen ERA 4.36). Sharp money likely already behind NYY (away favorite at -135, market moving toward value). Weather hot (84.5F) favors overs but doesn't change SP dynamic.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge: Will Warren (B pitcher, 10.7 K/9, 0.619 grade) is elite arm with high command score (0.677). Michael Wacha (B- pitcher, 7.8 K/9, 0.475 grade) is solid but not elite. 10.7 K/9 vs 7.8 K/9 = 2.9 K/9 gap = approximately 15-18% win probability swing toward NYY pitcher advantage.
- Lineup quality: NYY batting lineup (Aaron Judge 0.302 ISO, Ben Rice 0.35 ISO, Paul Goldschmidt 0.116 ISO) vs KC mediocre offense. Rundown on KC: perpetually weak lineup, bullpen ERA 4.36 (23rd out of 30).
- Home field advantage typically 3-4% but KC at home with weak team + away NYY strong team may compress home edge. Model predicts NYY 67.6% — reasonable for road team with elite pitcher.
- Temperature 84.5F (warm, boost overs slightly) but already priced into 9.0 market total.
Risk Factors
- AWAY historically weak: Historically away favorites show a supportive track record. Model edge 17.7% is in HIGH_EDGE_WARNING territory (15%+). However, pitcher advantage is REAL (Warren 10.7 K/9 vs Wacha 7.8 K/9) and lineup gap is visible (judge, rice, goldschmidt vs KC). This overrides the away-favorite caution.
- NYY injury status: Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL calf), Jasson Dominguez (10-day IL shoulder), Max Fried (15-day IL). But lineup still has Judge + Rice + Goldschmidt at top, so impact is modest.
- Game result risk: NYY winning 67.6% of the time doesn't mean easy covers. Close 1-2 run games likely.
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGSHARP SUPPORT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 70.4%
-53.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-53.3 pts
Total
9.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →