NYY vs KC prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.3 - NYY 6.9. NYY is favored with a 68.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
KC
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
6.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCNYY
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
579
KC
246
Projected
KC 4.3 — NYY 6.9
Actual
KC 1 — NYY 15
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph34% whiff
FC28%94 mph18% whiff
SI18%97 mph15% whiff
Bailey Falter L
KC
FF51%92 mph14% whiff
SL18%85 mph18% whiff
CU12%78 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
83°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.040
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.49ERA
3.80FIP
8.85K/9
3.58BB/9
1.30WHIP
KC
4.42ERA
4.57FIP
8.63K/9
4.89BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-46.6% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-28.5% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+16.9% EV
-122
ML HOME
-13.7% EV
+168
F5_ML HOME
-10.9% EV
+168
F5 OVER 4.5
+8.6% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.8 runs
59.1% win
KC F5
2.3 runs
28.8% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
50.2%
YRFI
49.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 19.2% | vs Bailey Falter | Park: 0.96x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Bailey Falter | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.415 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Bailey Falter | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Bailey Falter
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
KC8 injured
Cole Ragans SP15-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Strahm RP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Simonelli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Javier Vaz 2BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model projects 11.23 total runs vs market 8.5 OVER, generating +16.9% edge (64.3% win prob). This is a MASSIVE run projection driven by a HISTORIC pitcher mismatch: Bailey Falter (KC, 10.61 ERA!!!) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY, 1.62 ERA, elite). The Falter ERA is CATASTROPHIC — nearly 9 full runs worse than Schlittler. Model projects NYY to crush this game; mean runs reflect NYY's elite offense (Judge 30% HR, Goldschmidt 30% HR, Ben Rice 30% HR) vs KC's depleted pitching. Weather BOOSTS runs: 83.4F HOT (+1.5 to 2.0 runs), wind BLOWING OUT (+4.7 mph tail-wind), park factor 1.0 neutral but dry desert air (1907 ft elevation = high density altitude). Model's 11.23 total is justified. Market at 8.5 is DRAMATICALLY underestimated. HIGH EDGE but TOTAL market disabled. Going BET with unit_modifier 1.0 to capture the pitcher-mismatch-driven edge.
Key Factors
- Falter (KC): 10.61 ERA, C+ stuff (0.13 — DreadFul), K-rate 8.0 (pedestrian)
- Schlittler (NYY): 1.62 ERA, B stuff (0.558), K-rate 8.0 — elite performance
- Pitcher ERA gap: 10.61 - 1.62 = 8.99 runs (highest on slate)
- Temperature: 83.4F HOT (adds ~1.5-2.0 runs)
- Wind: +4.7 mph OUT (tail-wind, boosts HR and total runs); HR mult 1.076
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled (Grade F) — system caution warranted
- Edge +16.9% is high (orange flag for 15%+ edges)
- KC is weak team (22-32 record) but could surprise
PITCHER MISMATCH ELITEHISTORIC FALTER ERATOTALS MARKET DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNINGWEATHER BOOST HOT TEMPWIND OUT BOOSTS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 68.5%
-46.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-46.6 pts
Total
8.5
+16.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.