NYY vs MIL prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.8 - NYY 5.0. NYY is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
MIL
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 3.8 — NYY 5.0
Actual
MIL 6 — NYY 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Fried L
NYY
SI23%93 mph18% whiff
FC21%92 mph22% whiff
FF18%95 mph22% whiff
Jacob Misiorowski R
MIL
FF61%99 mph42% whiff
SL22%95 mph22% whiff
CU14%87 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
69°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.999
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.14ERA
3.68FIP
8.72K/9
3.61BB/9
1.27WHIP
MIL
3.59ERA
3.21FIP
9.71K/9
4.02BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.3% EV
-154
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-17.2% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-16.1% EV
+102
ML HOME
-11.5% EV
+112
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+8.4% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
+4.1% EV
-128
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.7 runs
50.7% win
MIL F5
2.0 runs
33.6% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Misiorowski
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Gerson Garabito RPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Christian Yelich LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
J.B. Bukauskas RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE54.7% WR (n=31)
OVER value (+8.4%, 54.7% model vs 46.3% market) driven by elite home pitcher (Misiorowski B+ grade, 61% FF, 3.07 ERA, 35.4% K rate) OPPOSITE weak away SP (Fried B- grade, 2.58 ERA but 21.4% K, C+ stuff = low strikeout pitcher). High-strikeout home arm faces weak away arm = elevated run environment despite Fried's solid ERA.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch FOR overs: Misiorowski (B+ 3.07 ERA, 61% FF, 35.4% K) vs Fried (B- 2.58 ERA but only 21.4% K, C+ stuff) = high-strikeout arm meets low-strikeout arm = batting practice risk for Fried
- Fried's low strikeout rate liability: 21.4% K (6th percentile) means contact-oriented pitcher; home hitters can elevate against soft stuff
- Green zone OVER at 54.7% WR (GREEN, n=31) — favorable historical zone for over bets; outperforms RED zone unders significantly
- Home field advantage MIL: crowd energy, Misiorowski's elite stuff play well at home
- F5 over slightly positive: +3% edge suggests early production likely
Risk Factors
- Fried's 2.58 ERA may indicate better stuff than K rate suggests; could underperform model's run allowance estimate
- NYY lineup strength unknown (early May); could be underperforming offensive norm
- MIL ballpark (1.0 neutral) doesn't inflate; relies purely on pitcher mismatch
OVER VALUEGREEN ZONELOW K PITCHER MISMATCHHOME FIELD ADVANTAGEF5 OVER LEAN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.4%
-43.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.3 pts
Total
7.5
+8.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →