NYY vs MIL prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.5 - NYY 4.3. NYY is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
MIL
245
Projected
MIL 3.5 — NYY 4.3
Actual
MIL 4 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF43%98 mph34% whiff
FC26%94 mph17% whiff
SI20%97 mph16% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
FF59%95 mph28% whiff
SV25%82 mph26% whiff
CH14%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
64°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.984
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.16ERA
3.64FIP
8.72K/9
3.56BB/9
1.26WHIP
MIL
3.56ERA
3.14FIP
9.42K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.2% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-7.9% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-7.3% EV
+112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-6.5% EV
+126
ML HOME
-6.2% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
-3.8% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
45.9% win
MIL F5
1.8 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.484 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kyle Harrison
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.385 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY24.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Kyle Harrison | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Gerson Garabito RPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Christian Yelich LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE53.0% WR (n=144)
Model slightly favors MIL home (43.1% vs market 46.3%, -3% edge). Kyle Harrison (2.29 ERA, B grade) vs Cam Schlittler (1.64 ERA, B grade, 27.7% K) suggests a pitcher's duel with slight NYY arm quality edge. Market prices evenly; no edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality nearly identical: Harrison (2.29 ERA, 28.8% K) vs Schlittler (1.64 ERA, 27.7% K). Schlittler slightly better.
- Market pricing: MIL home at 116 = 46.3% implied vs model 43.4% = -2.9% edge (none).
- Park: American Family retractable, 64.4F, 10mph in (slight wind suppression). Neutral baseline.
- Zone: YELLOW overall. No zone support for either side.
Risk Factors
- No edge means unpredictable outcome.
- NYY has recent blowout loss (context?). Potential lineup fatigue.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.9%
-43.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.2 pts
Total
7.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →