NYY vs MIL prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 3.4 - NYY 3.8. NYY is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
MIL
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
MIL
135
Projected
MIL 3.4 — NYY 3.8
Actual
MIL 4 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF42%94 mph17% whiff
SL28%86 mph39% whiff
CH16%85 mph33% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
FF48%93 mph22% whiff
CH37%82 mph20% whiff
FC10%87 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
60°F12 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.972 Total: 0.983
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.26ERA
3.74FIP
8.60K/9
3.59BB/9
1.28WHIP
MIL
3.49ERA
3.12FIP
9.48K/9
3.99BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.0% EV
-167
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-30.1% EV
-115
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.5% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.3% EV
+138
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.4% EV
-132
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.0 runs
42.8% win
MIL F5
1.9 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
57.2%
YRFI
42.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.366 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Logan Henderson | Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.349 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Logan Henderson
Trent Grisham NYY21.1%
ISO: 0.198 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Logan Henderson | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Logan Henderson
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL
Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL
Gerson Garabito RPDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL
Christian Yelich LF10-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=142)
Rodón's ERA is N/A (return from injury, TBD status) creates significant uncertainty on pitching quality. Henderson (4.86, 34.6% K) has elite K-rate but high ERA. Market slightly favors NYY (-121), model is neutral with tiny 53.3% to NYY. TBD pitcher makes this game unanalyzable with high confidence.
Key Factors
- Rodón ERA is N/A (TBD) — returning from injury, uncertain performance. This makes pitcher mismatch impossible to assess.
- Henderson (4.86, 34.6% K) has elite strikeout rate but high ERA suggests home runs or baserunners; quality unclear
- NYY has multiple IL players: Stanton (10-day calf), Dominguez (10-day shoulder) — weakens away team on road
- Market has NYY at -121 away, suggesting market respects Rodón enough to favor away team. But TBD status contradicts confidence.
Risk Factors
- Rodón's return from injury could mean reduced velocity or command; ERA N/A prevents proper pitcher analysis
- NYY injury toll (Stanton, Dominguez) weakens offense on road; expected production lower than model might assume
- MIL just swept NYY (3-0 at home per ESPN); momentum is strong for MIL, contradicting market's -121 NYY
TBD PITCHERINJURY RETURN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 53.4%
-41.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.0 pts
Total
8.0
+11.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →