NYY vs NYM prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.0 - NYY 4.2. NYY is favored with a 60.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
NYM
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
NYY
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMNYY
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,085 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.0 — NYY 4.2
Actual
NYM 2 — NYY 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF43%98 mph33% whiff
FC27%94 mph17% whiff
SI19%97 mph16% whiff
Clay Holmes R
NYM
SI51%94 mph11% whiff
ST18%82 mph32% whiff
CH15%89 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
64°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.959 Total: 0.975
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.31ERA
3.78FIP
8.86K/9
3.45BB/9
1.26WHIP
NYM
3.94ERA
3.79FIP
9.36K/9
3.82BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-47.3% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-14.4% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-11.7% EV
-115
ML HOME
-10.1% EV
+124
F5_ML AWAY
-6.5% EV
-167
NRFI NRFI
+4.9% EV
-149
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.1 runs
46.1% win
NYM F5
1.6 runs
33.4% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.8%
YRFI
35.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.355 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.348 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x
Juan Soto NYM21.4%
ISO: 0.242 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Grae Kessinger 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Luis Robert Jr. CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE51.2% WR (n=296)
Away favorite NYY has only 0.6% ML edge (59.9% vs 59.5% market) — essentially a coin flip. Pitcher context is muddled: Clay Holmes is listed as home pitcher (NYM, 2.01 ERA, C+ grade) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY, 1.46 ERA, B-grade). If Schlittler is the away starter, he has quality edge, but the data shows him as NYM pitcher. Data integrity issue — unclear which SP is actually starting for which team. Multiple NYY/NYM injuries (Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Dominguez, Jose Caballero on 10-day IL for NYY; Jorge Polanco, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor on IL for NYM) muddy the water further. Recommend SKIP due to lineup uncertainty and trivial ML edge.
Key Factors
- Trivial ML edge (0.6%): Market-model gap is negligible. This is not a bet, it's a coin flip.
- Data integrity question: Lineup data incomplete, SP assignments may have labeling issues. Cannot confidently assess pitcher advantage without clarity.
- Injury decimation both sides: NYY missing Stanton, Dominguez, Caballero (3 key position players); NYM missing Polanco, Alvarez, Lindor (3 key position players). Lineups are shadows of themselves.
- Green zone but meaningless edge: Game falls in GREEN zone (51.2% WR) but edge of 0.6% is within statistical noise. Green zone at this tiny edge is not actionable.
- Weather suppressive: 64.5°F + 10.1mph wind blowing in = significant weather suppression (-0.5 to -0.8 runs). Cold/wind supports under thesis, not side. But total edge is positive (market 7.0 vs model 7.26) so minimal value there either.
Risk Factors
- Coin flip edge (0.6%): Below minimum threshold for any bet. Even if we're right directionally, variance is massive relative to edge.
- Lineup data integrity: Cannot confirm starting lineups. Both teams have multiple IL players that might affect game dynamics in unpredictable ways.
- Public pressure on away favorite: Sharp money might be fading NYY as popular pick. If so, edge could be negative.
TRIVIAL EDGELINEUP UNCERTAINTYINJURY DECIMATIONDATA INTEGRITYSKIP RECOMMENDED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 60.7%
-47.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-47.3 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →