NYY vs NYM prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.3 - NYY 4.9. NYY is favored with a 64.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMNYY
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.8% (2,114 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.3 — NYY 4.9
Actual
NYM 6 — NYY 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
FF42%94 mph17% whiff
SL28%86 mph39% whiff
CH16%85 mph34% whiff
Huascar Brazobán R
NYM
SI47%96 mph22% whiff
CH42%90 mph29% whiff
FF6%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.031
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.32ERA
3.77FIP
8.75K/9
3.44BB/9
1.26WHIP
NYM
3.89ERA
3.85FIP
9.29K/9
3.83BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.4% EV
-167
ML HOME
-21.5% EV
+104
F5_ML HOME
-18.8% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-13.2% EV
-105
ML AWAY
+12.0% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+12.0% EV
+138
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
50.7% win
NYM F5
1.8 runs
32.0% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
62.4%
YRFI
37.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.368 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Huascar Brazobán | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.336 | Barrel: 19.7% | vs Huascar Brazobán | Park: 0.96x
Mark Vientos NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Carlos Rodón | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Carlos Rodón
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Huascar Brazobán
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Grae Kessinger 3BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1RED ZONE0.5% WR (n=153)
Away favorite NYY projects 64.4% win prob with strong 12.0% ML edge (market implies 54.9%). Huascar Brazobán (NYM, 2.31 ERA) vs Carlos Rodón (NYY away, 6.73 ERA) — massive pitcher mismatch AGAINST NYY despite model favoring them. This is DATA INTEGRITY RED FLAG: model favors away team with WORSE starter (6.73 > 2.31 ERA). However, NYM lineup decimated (Lindor, Polanco, Alvarez all IL) — estimated -1.5 runs offensive output. Edge likely comes from lineup destruction, not pitching. Still, away favorite RED zone (45.7% WR) is concern. But NYM injuries so severe, offset applies.
Key Factors
- Away favorite in RED zone (45.7% WR) — major caution, but NYM injuries offset
- SP mismatch AGAINST NYY: Rodón (6.73 ERA) vs Brazobán (2.31 ERA) — ~4.4 ERA gap favors home
- Lineup destruction NYM: Lindor (SS 10-day IL), Polanco (1B 10-day IL), Alvarez (C 10-day IL) — estimated -1.5 runs NYM
- NYY also injured but less severely: Cole IL, Fried IL, Stanton IL — estimated -0.8 runs NYY
- Net injury swing ~0.7 runs to NYY advantage (NYM hurt worse) offsets SP disadvantage
Risk Factors
- Away favorite historically underperforms: RED zone 45.7% WR (n=153) — should NOT bet away favorites typically
- SP badly disadvantaged (Rodón vs elite Brazobán) — unusual setup where model favors team with worse arm
- NYY lineup still functional despite injuries (Judge, Soto remain) — but Stanton out is major DH loss
AWAY FAVORITE RED ZONESP MISMATCH AGAINST BET TEAMLINEUP DESTRUCTION NYMML EDGE STRONGRUNLINE EDGE SUBSTANTIAL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 64.4%
-50.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.4 pts
Total
8.5
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →