NYY vs NYM prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.0 - NYY 5.3. NYY is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMNYY
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (2,128 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.0 — NYY 5.3
Actual
NYM 7 — NYY 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
SI44%95 mph19% whiff
FF23%95 mph23% whiff
SL17%80 mph50% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF56%94 mph21% whiff
CH22%87 mph26% whiff
CU12%80 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
90°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.41ERA
3.72FIP
8.77K/9
3.45BB/9
1.27WHIP
NYM
4.06ERA
3.85FIP
9.69K/9
3.80BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-24.3% EV
+168
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-23.7% EV
-204
ML HOME
-20.7% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-19.6% EV
-139
ML AWAY
+14.5% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
+11.8% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.0 runs
48.4% win
NYM F5
2.5 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.360 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.330 | Barrel: 19.5% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.277 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Elmer Rodríguez
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Jose Caballero SS10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Clay Holmes SP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
Grae Kessinger 3BDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 59.8%
-24.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-24.3 pts
Total
8.5
+1.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →