Who is predicted to win NYY vs OAK on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, NYY is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is OAK 5.1 - NYY 5.9.

How did NYY vs OAK on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: OAK 2 - NYY 8. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

NYY vs OAK Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

NYY vs OAK prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.1 - NYY 5.9. NYY is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.

OAK

5.1

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.5

NYY

5.9

Projected Score

Win Probability

45.4%

54.6%

OAKNYY

+1.5

Run Line (OAK)

9.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.8% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

NYY

468

OAK

357

Projected

OAK 5.1 — NYY 5.9

Actual

OAK 2 — NYY 8

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Carlos Rodón L

NYY

FF42%95 mph24% whiff

SL28%86 mph30% whiff

SI16%94 mph19% whiff

Luis Severino R

OAK

ST24%85 mph28% whiff

SI23%96 mph12% whiff

FF22%97 mph20% whiff

Weather Impact

Oakland Coliseum

60°F8 mph wind

HR: 0.967 Total: 0.980

8mph in

Bullpen Comparison

NYY

3.44ERA

3.81FIP

8.70K/9

3.57BB/9

1.29WHIP

OAK

4.08ERA

3.77FIP

9.09K/9

4.09BB/9

1.38WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-33.9% EV

-133

TOTAL UNDER 9.5

-16.2% EV

-110

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-8.3% EV

+112

TOTAL OVER 9.5

+7.2% EV

-110

F5_ML HOME

-7.0% EV

+106

ML AWAY

-6.5% EV

-143

First 5 Innings & NRFI

NYY F5

3.4 runs

48.4% win

OAK F5

2.9 runs

39.5% win

F5 Total

6.3

NRFI

47.7%

YRFI

52.3%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.24

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.5

Over 0.5 HR

91%

Over 1.5 HR

69%

No HR

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Carlos Rodón

0.0 K projected

NYY | K/9: 0.0

Luis Severino

0.0 K projected

OAK | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

NYY6 injured

Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL

Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL

Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL

Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL

Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL

Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY

OAK6 injured

Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL

Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL

Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL

Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL

Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL

Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

NYY 54.6%

-33.9 pts

Run Line