NYY vs OAK prediction for May 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.7 - NYY 5.6. NYY is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
OAK
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
NYY
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKNYY
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
468
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 4.7 — NYY 5.6
Actual
OAK 6 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF30%96 mph17% whiff
CH22%85 mph31% whiff
ST20%81 mph44% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI38%94 mph20% whiff
SL17%86 mph30% whiff
FC17%92 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
66°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.988
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.44ERA
3.81FIP
8.70K/9
3.57BB/9
1.29WHIP
OAK
4.08ERA
3.77FIP
9.09K/9
4.09BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-35.5% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.4% EV
+106
NRFI NRFI
+7.6% EV
+126
F5_ML HOME
-7.1% EV
+112
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-6.4% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.0 runs
48.8% win
OAK F5
2.5 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
51.1%
YRFI
48.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
9%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
OAK8 injured
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Leo De Vries SSDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALRED ZONE43.4% WR (n=173)
Weathers (10.2 K/9, B grade) creates pitcher mismatch to NYY (away), but NYY is in RED zone historically (43.4% WR). Market overprices NYY at -151 (60.2% vs 56.4% true). Away RED zone is hard block on play despite pitcher advantage.
Key Factors
- Starting pitchers: Ryan Weathers (NYY away, B grade, 10.2 K/9, excellent) vs J.T. Ginn (OAK home, B-, 8.1 K/9). WEATHERS IS CLEARLY SUPERIOR: +2.1 K/9, B vs B- grade. This is PITCHER_MISMATCH TO NYY (away).
- NYY away is in RED zone (43.4% WR). Even with pitcher advantage (Weathers 10.2 K/9), away RED zone is hard block.
- Market overprices NYY at -151 (60.2%) vs model 56.4%. 3.8% over-valuation suggests sharp money is against NYY.
- NRFI edge 7.6% (but NRFI disabled, grade F).
- No environmental advantage (65.9°F, 5.5mph wind in, open roof).
Risk Factors
- NYY is away dog in RED zone (43.4% WR, -$23.99 units). Hard block on play.
- Market overprices NYY by 3.8pp, suggesting sharp money disagrees with model/market consensus.
- Weathers pitcher advantage (+2.1 K/9, B grade) insufficient to overcome away RED zone bias historically.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.0%
-35.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-35.5 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →