FINAL: SEA 2 — NYY 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.5 - NYY 5.1 (NYY at 62.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
SEA
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEANYY
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
SEA
245
Projected
SEA 3.5 — NYY 5.1
Actual
SEA 2 — NYY 1
Pick Results
NYY F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF45%97 mph15% whiff
CH29%87 mph41% whiff
ST19%84 mph39% whiff
Luis Castillo R
SEA
FF46%92 mph8% whiff
ST25%81 mph46% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
46°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
9.81K/9
3.41BB/9
1.22WHIP
SEA
5.27ERA
4.41FIP
8.92K/9
5.18BB/9
1.76WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-50.5% EV
-175
F5_ML HOME
-21.8% EV
-104
ML HOME
-19.1% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 3.5
+16.5% EV
+118
F5_ML AWAY
+12.6% EV
-120
ML AWAY
+12.0% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.2 runs
50.6% win
SEA F5
1.4 runs
28.7% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
61.6%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Luis Castillo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPDAY-TO-DAY
SEA6 injured
Carlos Vargas RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brennen Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 62.3%
-50.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-50.5 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →