FINAL: SEA 0 — NYY 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 4.2 - NYY 4.2 (SEA at 52.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
NYY
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEANYY
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.2 — NYY 4.2
Actual
SEA 0 — NYY 5
Pick Results
OVER 7.0totalWIN+0.95u
F5 UNDER 3.5f5_totalLOSS-1.00u
NYY MLmlWIN+0.89u
NYY F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.83u
NYY @ SEA NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
NYY -1.5run_lineWIN+1.58u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF52%98 mph24% whiff
FC20%93 mph20% whiff
CU14%83 mph19% whiff
George Kirby R
SEA
SL28%87 mph31% whiff
FF28%96 mph26% whiff
SI27%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
50°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.90ERA
3.53FIP
10.14K/9
3.48BB/9
1.25WHIP
SEA
4.75ERA
4.05FIP
9.19K/9
4.55BB/9
1.61WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.1% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-31.0% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+25.9% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.0% EV
+160
NRFI NRFI
+9.1% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.6 runs
37.0% win
SEA F5
1.7 runs
40.7% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
67.9%
YRFI
32.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.56
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
13%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPDAY-TO-DAY
SEA6 injured
Carlos Vargas RP15-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Bryce Miller SP15-DAY-IL
Brennen Davis CFDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 52.0%
-38.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.1 pts
Total
7.0
+25.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →