FINAL: SF 0 — NYY 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 3.2 - NYY 4.7 (NYY at 64.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
SF
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFNYY
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.2 — NYY 4.7
Actual
SF 0 — NYY 3
Pick Results
NYY @ SF F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.71u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF54%98 mph23% whiff
FC20%92 mph21% whiff
CU15%83 mph18% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF52%94 mph20% whiff
SL23%88 mph28% whiff
CH13%85 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
77°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.022
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
4.23ERA
4.22FIP
9.04K/9
4.14BB/9
1.38WHIP
SF
3.58ERA
3.61FIP
8.37K/9
3.21BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-49.1% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-22.9% EV
+112
ML HOME
-17.4% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.1% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
-141
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+9.8% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.8 runs
56.6% win
SF F5
1.7 runs
27.6% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
0.0
Over 0.5 HR
0%
Over 1.5 HR
0%
No HR
0%
Aaron Judge NYY28.8%
ISO: 0.448 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Robbie Ray | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF12.9%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Chapman SF10.6%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 0.88x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY5 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPDAY-TO-DAY
SF8 injured
Hayden Birdsong RP60-DAY-IL
Sam Hentges RP15-DAY-IL
Reiver Sanmartin RP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP15-DAY-IL
Parks Harber 3BOUT
Rowan Wick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=970)
Oracle Park's run-suppression (park factor 0.88), mild weather, and two similar-quality starters (Ray B- vs Schlittler B) support the under 8.5 — the model projects 7.85 total vs market's 8.5.
Key Factors
- Model total: 7.85 vs market 8.5 — gap of -0.65 runs, 58.7% under probability
- Oracle Park factor 0.88 — one of the most suppressive venues in baseball (-12% runs)
- NYY bullpen ERA 4.23 (average), SF bullpen ERA 3.58 (strong closer 3.24, setup 3.27) — bullpen quality supports limiting late runs
- F5 total mean only 4.44 combined — low-scoring first half expected (Schlittler K rate 26.6%, Ray K rate 24.5%)
- NRFI probability 56.2% (model) — clean first inning play; weather neutral at 77°F, 4.1 mph wind blowing NE (toward right field at Oracle)
Risk Factors
- Away ML (NYY) in RED zone: 38.1% historical WR (552 sample) — avoid NYY ML despite 9.1% model edge
- NYY bullpen depth depleted (Cole + Rodon + Schmidt all IL) — if Schlittler exits early, thin pen may inflate runs
- Under calibration grade is F overall; under zone requires 18% minimum edge per regime — the 9.8% edge here is below the restricted threshold
PARK FACTORTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 64.1%
-49.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-49.1 pts
Total
8.5
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →