FINAL: TB 5 — NYY 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 2.9 - NYY 3.6 (NYY at 56.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
TB
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYTB W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
TB
135
Projected
TB 2.9 — NYY 3.6
Actual
TB 5 — NYY 4
Pick Results
NYY @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.72u
Ben Rice OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+0.62u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Fried L
NYY
FF23%94 mph21% whiff
SI22%93 mph0% whiff
FC19%92 mph25% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
CH28%79 mph31% whiff
FC23%89 mph14% whiff
SI22%92 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
79°F12 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
2.70ERA
2.07FIP
10.35K/9
3.38BB/9
1.25WHIP
TB
5.97ERA
5.12FIP
8.37K/9
3.98BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.0% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-27.4% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+21.5% EV
-104
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.7% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.2% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-14.4% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.7 runs
40.4% win
TB F5
1.6 runs
36.6% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
66.9%
YRFI
33.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.7
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
49%
No HR
19%
Ben Rice NYY50.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY49.3%
ISO: 0.108 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Jonathan Aranda TB39.9%
ISO: 0.133 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Max Fried | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
TB8 injured
Drew Rasmussen SPPATERNITY
Joe Boyle SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Pepiot SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP15-DAY-IL
Ty Johnson SPDAY-TO-DAY
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE52.2% WR (n=46)
Model projects 6.55 total (21.5% edge on UNDER 7.5, 62% prob) with strong pitcher mismatch: Max Fried (B- grade, 1.46 ERA, elite command) vs. Nick Martinez (C+ grade, 2.43 ERA, D stuff 0.041, weak). Indoor neutral weather (Tropicana dome) eliminates weather variance. Model gap significant but YELLOW zone (49.1% WR) tempers confidence — lean only. NYY losing streak (0-4) is macro concern.
Key Factors
- ELITE PITCHER EDGE: Max Fried (B- grade, 1.46 ERA, 18.7% K-rate, 0.434 overall score, elite command 0.643) is DOMINANT vs. Nick Martinez (C+ grade, 2.43 ERA, but WEAK STUFF D-grade 0.041, 10.1% K-rate, good command 0.796 but low velocity). Fried is clear ace.
- Indoor environment (Tropicana dome, closed roof) = neutral weather baseline. No wind, no temperature impact. Ballpark neutral (1.0 multiplier). This removes variance and favors elite control pitcher (Fried).
- TB bullpen (5.97 ERA, 0.754 quality) is WEAKEST in slate. NYY bullpen (2.7 ERA, 1.667 quality) is ELITE. If Fried exits, game changes. But elite reliever advantage for NYY neutralizes TB weakness.
- Model 21.5% UNDER edge is substantial. YELLOW zone (52.2% WR, n=46) shows slight underperformance but edge is real. Market 7.5 is fair — model projects 6.55, gap is 0.95 runs.
- NYY road slump (0-4 streak) is MACRO RISK. Model doesn't account for momentum/fatigue variance. Fried elite + dome neutral + NYY bullpen elite = model projection sound, but real-world team confidence is low.
Risk Factors
- NYY losing streak (0-4) is psychological drag. Model projections assume baseline confidence, but teams in slumps underperform situationally.
- Aaron Judge (49.3% HR prob) is dangerous power — one swing can inflate total. Ben Rice (50% HR prob) adds secondary power risk.
- TB has Jonathan Aranda (39.9% HR prob) — not zero power despite weak offense.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 56.1%
-40.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.0 pts
Total
7.5
+21.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →