NYY vs TEX prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.5 - NYY 3.8. NYY is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
TEX
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
TEX
245
Projected
TEX 3.5 — NYY 3.8
Actual
TEX 3 — NYY 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
Nathan Eovaldi R
TEX
FS37%88 mph26% whiff
FC21%91 mph30% whiff
CU18%77 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
61°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.023
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.85ERA
3.96FIP
8.77K/9
3.60BB/9
1.38WHIP
TEX
2.77ERA
4.05FIP
7.86K/9
3.47BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.8% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-27.0% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+18.6% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.5% EV
+134
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.1% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-9.3% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.1 runs
42.3% win
TEX F5
2.0 runs
39.5% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
47%
No HR
21%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.382 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.342 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Nathan Eovaldi | Park: 1.02x
Josh Jung TEX19.4%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Elmer Rodríguez
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Nathan Eovaldi
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Hess SPDAY-TO-DAY
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Wyatt Langford LF10-DAY-IL
Carter Baumler RP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Luis Curvelo RP15-DAY-IL
Chris Martin RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 51.3%
-37.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.8 pts
Total
8.5
+18.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →