NYY vs TOR prediction for June 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 5.5 - NYY 4.7. TOR is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
TOR
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.3% (2,305 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
TOR
467
Projected
TOR 5.5 — NYY 4.7
Actual
TOR 8 — NYY 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
FF29%96 mph18% whiff
CH23%85 mph33% whiff
ST20%81 mph44% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF46%94 mph15% whiff
FS33%83 mph43% whiff
SL22%88 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
78°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.977 Total: 0.984
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.40ERA
3.73FIP
8.59K/9
3.48BB/9
1.27WHIP
TOR
3.90ERA
3.64FIP
8.92K/9
3.49BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-25.9% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-24.7% EV
-196
F5_ML AWAY
-22.3% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-19.1% EV
+161
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+18.2% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-15.2% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
33.9% win
TOR F5
3.3 runs
53.6% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
45.9%
YRFI
54.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Ernie Clement TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Alejandro Kirk TOR30.0%
ISO: 0.100 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Ryan Weathers | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Weathers
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Payton Henry CDAY-TO-DAY
Eric Reyzelman SPDAY-TO-DAY
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=188)
OVER 8.0 shows massive edge (+18.2%, 60.6% model prob). NYY strong favorite (57.8% model) moderately overpriced by market (-15.2% ML edge away). Trey Yesavage (3.41 ERA, B- grade) vs Ryan Weathers (4.17 ERA, B grade) — slight home pitcher mismatch but TOTAL is the real play. Totals market is broken (UNDER recently disabled). Home environment suppresses scoring multiplier (retractable roof closed, 77.8F, -10.6mph wind), yet model projects 10.18 total runs. Market pricing at 8.0 is dramatic underestimate.
Key Factors
- OVER edge extraordinary: +18.2% (60.6% model vs ~42% market), driven by model run projection (10.18) vs market (8.0) — 2.18-run gap
- Pitcher matchup modestly neutral: Yesavage 3.41 ERA vs Weathers 4.17 ERA (0.76-point gap, both B-/B grade); home advantage slight for TOR
- UNDER market disabled (auto-disabled 6/12 grade F performance) — model may be gaming disabled market; OVER is only actionable total today
Risk Factors
- Away ML RED zone (43.3% WR) — avoid NYY ML despite -15.2% model edge (market right to avoid)
- UNDER market disabled = market doesn't trust under-totals today; OVER edge could be algorithmic artifact from disabled counterpart
- NYY injuries (-1.5pt swing) reduce lineup production; model may overestimate NYY scoring despite three key bats out
TOTAL MASSIVE EDGEOVER UNDERPRICEDUNDER DISABLED MARKETAWAY ML RED ZONEF5 OVER ALIGNED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 57.8%
-24.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-24.7 pts
Total
8.0
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →