NYY vs TOR prediction for June 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.3 - NYY 4.4. TOR is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
TOR
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYY
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYY
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (2,331 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.3 — NYY 4.4
Actual
TOR 3 — NYY 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF41%94 mph21% whiff
SI26%93 mph19% whiff
ST21%84 mph23% whiff
Patrick Corbin L
TOR
SI30%91 mph5% whiff
SL25%79 mph36% whiff
CH18%78 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
69°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.023
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.40ERA
3.71FIP
8.79K/9
3.64BB/9
1.29WHIP
TOR
3.91ERA
3.64FIP
8.96K/9
3.43BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.9% EV
-154
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.8% EV
+128
ML AWAY
-10.4% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-9.1% EV
+100
F5_ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
-143
ML HOME
+3.6% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
45.7% win
TOR F5
2.2 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
53.8%
YRFI
46.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Patrick Corbin
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Wells C10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Payton Henry CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP60-DAY-IL
Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 50.2%
-32.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →