OAK vs BAL prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 4.8 - OAK 4.5. BAL is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
BAL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
OAK
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALOAK
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
346
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 4.8 — OAK 4.5
Actual
BAL 2 — OAK 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC32%88 mph21% whiff
CU22%77 mph26% whiff
SI19%91 mph8% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
FF33%97 mph15% whiff
KC33%86 mph27% whiff
FC20%90 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.983 Total: 0.988
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.20ERA
4.26FIP
8.68K/9
4.69BB/9
1.43WHIP
BAL
3.97ERA
3.92FIP
9.64K/9
3.61BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-31.1% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-14.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.3% EV
+152
F5_ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-128
ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+6.1% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.6 runs
42.1% win
BAL F5
2.8 runs
44.1% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 16.8% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x
Brent Rooker OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Shane Baz | Park: 1.03x
Gunnar Henderson BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Shane Baz
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK3 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Heston Kjerstad LF10-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Dean Kremer SP15-DAY-IL
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Richard Guasch SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.6% WR (n=244)
Both starters are mediocre (Baz 5.39 ERA, Civale 3.19 ERA) with weak K rates. Model barely favors home despite better park conditions; YELLOW zone confirms this is a coin flip with no informational edge.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch slight: Baz (5.39 ERA, 19.6% K/9) vs Civale (3.19 ERA, 16.4% K/9)—Civale edge but both unreliable
- Market efficiency: Home ML -120 = 54.6% implied vs 54% model (coin flip, 0% edge)
- Zone profile: UNDER 9.5 in YELLOW, 50.6% WR, 244 sample size. Not actionable.
- Ballpark: Oriole Park +3% HR factor, neutral winds. No park edge.
- Weather: 75F, 8mph wind in (neutral). Temp drives some run scoring but not decisive.
Risk Factors
- Both starters sub-4.0 ERA but high variance—bullpen fragility unknown.
- Edge is marginal and zone support is weak (YELLOW, 50.6% WR).
- Model-market spread is near zero; expect regression to mean.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 54.0%
-31.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-31.1 pts
Total
9.5
+6.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →