OAK vs CHC prediction for June 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 4.6 - OAK 6.1. OAK is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
CHC
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
468
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 4.6 — OAK 6.1
Actual
CHC 1 — OAK 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF53%96 mph18% whiff
SL22%87 mph36% whiff
ST12%85 mph22% whiff
Jameson Taillon R
CHC
FF29%92 mph20% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
CH15%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
64°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.040 Total: 1.022
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.08ERA
3.77FIP
9.09K/9
4.09BB/9
1.38WHIP
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-37.2% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+31.0% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-27.0% EV
+160
F5_ML HOME
-25.9% EV
-118
ML HOME
-24.9% EV
-127
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-21.2% EV
-192
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.7 runs
55.7% win
CHC F5
2.6 runs
31.7% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
46.2%
YRFI
53.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Leo De Vries SSDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE44.1% WR (n=192)
Away (OAK) projects 58.1% with Jump (LHP, 9.0 K/9) outpitching Taillon (RHP, 7.7 K/9), but away ML edge 20.8% lands in RED zone away (44.1% WR n=192). OVER 7.5 shows 31.0% edge, also RED zone. Double RED flag suggests model overconfidence.
Key Factors
- Jump K-rate edge: 9.0 vs Taillon 7.7 K/9 (17% advantage)
- RED zone away: 44.1% WR contradicts 20.8% edge
- RED zone OVER: 50.1% WR contradicts 31.0% edge
- Model projects 10.72 runs, market 7.5 = 3.22 run overestimate
Risk Factors
- High edge in RED zone = signature model overconfidence on both sides
- Away ML historically performs poorly (44.1% WR); this is consistent
- Wrigley Field conditions (64F) + wind 5 mph out minimize scoring advantage
RED ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 60.9%
-27.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-27.0 pts
Total
7.5
+31.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →