OAK vs CHC prediction for June 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.2 - OAK 5.7. CHC is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
OAK
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (1,970 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
468
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.2 — OAK 5.7
Actual
CHC 7 — OAK 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI37%94 mph20% whiff
FC17%91 mph15% whiff
SL17%86 mph29% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF41%92 mph16% whiff
FS34%83 mph40% whiff
ST14%82 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
85°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.989
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.20ERA
3.83FIP
8.86K/9
4.13BB/9
1.38WHIP
CHC
3.53ERA
4.76FIP
8.07K/9
3.89BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.0% EV
-167
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
-23.6% EV
-106
F5_ML HOME
-8.1% EV
-135
ML HOME
-5.3% EV
-143
TOTAL OVER 10.0
+4.8% EV
-114
F5 OVER 5.5
+3.3% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.3 runs
42.4% win
CHC F5
3.6 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
6.9
NRFI
44.6%
YRFI
55.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.37
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Colby Thomas OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.093 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Leo De Vries SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=20)
Market is correctly pricing pitcher advantage to home (Ginn 3.10 ERA vs Imanaga 4.72 ERA). Model's 4.8% over edge conflicts with weather (wind-in -10.7 mph) suppressing runs. Model total 11.91 vs market 10.0 (1.91 run gap) suggests model is blind to wind effect; market is sharp here. No edge exists.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage home: Ginn 3.10 ERA vs Imanaga 4.72 ERA (1.62 ERA gap, meaningful); CHC pitcher is better despite lower grades
- Model run projection failure: Model 11.91 total vs market 10.0 is 1.91 run gap. This occurs despite wind-in conditions.
- Massive wind-in: 11.9 mph wind BLOWING IN (-10.7 tail wind) is huge run suppressor. Market correctly pricing this at 10.0 total.
- Bullpen edge home: CHC 3.53 ERA vs OAK 4.2 ERA — CHC has better relief
- No ML edge: Model -1.2% edge actually favors MARKET slightly over model; no away value
Risk Factors
- Model weather blindness: 1.91 run gap between model (11.91) and market (10.0) is unexplained by other factors. Model is overestimating runs.
- Over edge suspicious: 4.8% over edge in model when market is suppressing runs due to wind. Over lean conflicts with weather.
- Small sample zone: Over in 0-5% bucket has only n=20, small sample for confidence
WEATHER IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 55.4%
-1.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.5 pts
Total
10.0
+4.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →