OAK vs HOU prediction for June 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.4 - OAK 5.5. HOU is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
HOU
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUOAK
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,193 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
467
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 5.4 — OAK 5.5
Actual
HOU 0 — OAK 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF50%96 mph12% whiff
SL24%87 mph23% whiff
CU9%82 mph33% whiff
Mike Burrows R
HOU
FF29%95 mph10% whiff
CH26%87 mph32% whiff
SL16%90 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Minute Maid Park
86°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.54ERA
3.77FIP
9.56K/9
4.31BB/9
1.42WHIP
HOU
4.45ERA
4.42FIP
8.61K/9
5.01BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-32.4% EV
-179
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-27.7% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.9% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-114
ML AWAY
-6.8% EV
-108
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.6% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.0 runs
41.5% win
HOU F5
3.1 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.6%
YRFI
54.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.204 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Mike Burrows | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Mike Burrows
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Leo De Vries SSDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Hunter Brown SP60-DAY-IL
Yainer Diaz C10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP15-DAY-IL
Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL
Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE51.1% WR (n=351)
Model shows near-even sides (52.2% home vs 47.8% away) with minimal ML edge (-0.2%, statistical noise). Pitching matchup is weak: Mike Burrows (6.11 ERA, C stuff) vs Gage Jump (4.05 ERA, C stuff but A- command 0.800). Jump's elite command (0.800) is notable but both are below-average starters. Weather is warm (85.6F) with neutral wind (1.3mph reverse wind). Park 1.0. Bullpen: HOU 4.45 vs OAK 4.54 — essentially equal. Total model 10.89 vs market 9.0 = edge on OVER but historical TOTAL zone is disabled. No actionable edge exists. SKIP.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Burrows 6.11 ERA (weak stuff) vs Jump 4.05 ERA (elite command 0.800) — gap of ~2.0 ERA, favors HOU by ~1.0 run
- Bullpen equal: HOU 4.45 vs OAK 4.54 ERA — no edge
- Weather warm (85.6F, +0.5 runs) but minimal wind impact (1.3mph reverse)
- Park neutral (1.0 Minute Maid dome)
- Model ML edge -0.2% (HOU) is statistical noise; market has correct pricing
Risk Factors
- Both teams have weak bullpen by advanced metrics (quality both ~0.99-1.01), so late-game scenarios offer no edge
- TOTAL edge 3.8% OVER is not actionable given TOTAL market disabled grade
- Burrows recent form unknown — 6.11 ERA may continue or improve with better command execution
MINIMAL EDGENEUTRAL PRICINGWEAK PITCHING BOTHYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 52.2%
-32.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-32.4 pts
Total
9.0
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →