OAK vs LAA prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.9 - OAK 4.2. OAK is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
LAA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAOAK
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,157 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.9 — OAK 4.2
Actual
LAA 2 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI37%94 mph20% whiff
SL17%86 mph20% whiff
CH16%88 mph33% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
CH34%91 mph28% whiff
SI30%98 mph15% whiff
FF22%98 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
68°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.975 Total: 0.984
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.46ERA
3.90FIP
9.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.49WHIP
LAA
4.71ERA
4.59FIP
8.89K/9
4.92BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-36.7% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.2% EV
+125
NRFI NRFI
+8.2% EV
-108
ML AWAY
-7.5% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
-6.1% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.4 runs
45.1% win
LAA F5
2.1 runs
37.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
60.0%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 15.6% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.98x
Jorge Soler LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs J.T. Ginn | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
LAA6 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Rendon 3B60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE38.2% WR (n=7)
Walbert Ureña (3.55 ERA, C grade) vs JT Ginn (3.37 ERA, C+ grade) — marginal SP matchup, nearly even. Model 48.3% home win prob, market 47.6% — only 0.3% edge on home ML, essentially a coin flip. Away ML edge 0.3% (fake). NRFI 8.2% edge at 56.1% prob looks better. But overall, this is a dead-even matchup with no mechanism for conviction. Skip in favor of clearer spots.
Key Factors
- Ureña (3.55 ERA, C) vs Ginn (3.37 ERA, C+) = even matchup, nearly identical quality
- Model 48.3% home vs market 47.6% = 0.3% edge (coin flip)
- NRFI 8.2% edge (56.1% prob) is only interesting angle
- Wind 10.2 mph in (-8.6) slightly suppresses runs
- No lineup advantages, park advantages, or momentum signals
Risk Factors
- Even matchups are traps — market is often correct on balanced games
- 0.3% edge has no conviction; skip in favor of clearer spots
NEUTRAL MATCHUPLOW CONVICTIONNO EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 51.7%
-36.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-36.7 pts
Total
9.0
+3.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →