OAK vs LAA prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.8 - OAK 3.8. LAA is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
LAA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAOAK
-1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.0% (2,186 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.8 — OAK 3.8
Actual
LAA 6 — OAK 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
FF34%90 mph12% whiff
SL30%77 mph19% whiff
FC19%86 mph22% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
FF41%94 mph15% whiff
SL33%86 mph29% whiff
CH12%83 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
79°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.992
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.46ERA
3.90FIP
9.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.49WHIP
LAA
4.69ERA
4.57FIP
8.83K/9
4.94BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.4% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-36.7% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+14.0% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+12.1% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-11.8% EV
+155
F5_ML HOME
-9.3% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
LAA F5
2.2 runs
44.0% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.204 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK28.3%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
LAA6 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Rendon 3B60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 51.1%
-11.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-11.8 pts
Total
9.0
+14.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →