OAK vs LAA prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 4.1 - OAK 3.9. LAA is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
LAA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAOAK
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.3% (2,197 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.1 — OAK 3.9
Actual
LAA 5 — OAK 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC34%88 mph20% whiff
CU22%77 mph25% whiff
SI20%91 mph8% whiff
Jack Kochanowicz R
LAA
SI39%96 mph14% whiff
CH23%90 mph35% whiff
SL20%86 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
84°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.995
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.43ERA
3.89FIP
9.11K/9
4.38BB/9
1.46WHIP
LAA
4.71ERA
4.57FIP
8.83K/9
4.96BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.9% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-29.6% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-23.0% EV
+125
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+19.8% EV
-114
F5 UNDER 5.5
+18.9% EV
-125
ML AWAY
-15.7% EV
-130
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
39.7% win
LAA F5
2.2 runs
42.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Jack Kochanowicz
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
LAA6 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Pomeranz RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Rendon 3B60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 54.0%
-30.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.9 pts
Total
9.5
+19.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →