OAK vs LAA prediction for June 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 5.0 - OAK 6.0. OAK is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
LAA
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAOAK
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.6% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
468
LAA
357
Projected
LAA 5.0 — OAK 6.0
Actual
LAA 3 — OAK 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI34%94 mph21% whiff
FC19%91 mph20% whiff
CH18%88 mph31% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
SI32%98 mph18% whiff
CH31%91 mph35% whiff
FF21%98 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
70°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.979 Total: 0.986
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.1% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-27.6% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-19.0% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+18.6% EV
-110
ML HOME
-10.8% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.4% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.5 runs
53.0% win
LAA F5
2.5 runs
34.0% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jose Siri LFPATERNITY
Niko Kavadas 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE41.1% WR (n=11)
Away SP slight edge (Ginn 8.0 K/9, B-, 3.41 ERA vs Ureña 8.4 K/9, C+). Model away lean 56.2%. AWAY ML edge 2.5% at 55.4% is mild. OVER 8.5 edge 18.6% — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING (totals disabled). Wind 8mph IN (suppresses runs) contradicts high OVER. Market aware; no clean edge.
Key Factors
- AWAY SP SLIGHT EDGE: Ginn (3.41 ERA, B-, 21.5% K) vs Ureña (8.4 K/9, C+, 22.1% K) — even K-rate, Ginn better ERA
- Model away lean 56.2% — mild signal
- AWAY ML edge 2.5% at 55.4% — marginal
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING on OVER: 18.6% edge at 62.1% — totals disabled, untrustworthy
- Wind/park contradict high OVER: 8mph wind IN (suppresses ~1 run), Angel Stadium park 0.986 (suppresses), market 8.5 total respects conditions
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING on OVER suggests model overconfidence on run scoring
- Away ML falls into RED ZONE historically (41.1% WR) — road dogs underperform
- Market aware of downwind; likely respecting physical conditions
AWAY SP SLIGHT EDGERED ZONE AWAYHIGH EDGE WARNING TOTALWEATHER SUPPRESSES RUNSMARKET AWARE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 56.2%
-40.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.1 pts
Total
8.5
+18.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →