OAK vs LAA prediction for June 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.8 - OAK 4.9. OAK is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
LAA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
OAK
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAOAK
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (2,559 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.8 — OAK 4.9
Actual
LAA 4 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC36%88 mph22% whiff
CU23%77 mph24% whiff
SI19%91 mph8% whiff
Sam Aldegheri L
LAA
FF44%92 mph9% whiff
CH32%80 mph31% whiff
FC12%87 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
71°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-43.7% EV
-164
F5_ML HOME
-23.3% EV
-106
ML HOME
-16.9% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-13.0% EV
-108
F5_ML AWAY
+11.9% EV
-118
ML AWAY
+8.9% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.0 runs
55.6% win
LAA F5
2.0 runs
31.9% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Jonah Heim OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.404 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Sam Aldegheri | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 10.0% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 0.98x
Shea Langeliers OAK29.6%
ISO: 0.357 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Sam Aldegheri | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Sam Aldegheri
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler Soderstrom LFDAY-TO-DAY
Wei-En Lin POUT
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE42.4% WR (n=10)
Oakland away favorite at -112 projects 57.6% win prob vs market 52.9% implied, creating +8.9% edge. Aaron Civale (B- grade, 15.8% K rate, solid command) vs Sam Aldegheri (C grade, 14.2% K rate, poor command) creates clear pitcher mismatch. OAK on road but Civale's elite strikeout metrics (6.4 K/9 competent) dominate Aldegheri's weaker stuff.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Civale (B-, 15.8% K rate, strong command) >> Aldegheri (C, 14.2% K rate, poor command). 1.6pt K-rate gap = significant.
- Away favorite RED zone (40.9% WR) caution applied, but pitcher advantage real and actionable
- Weather: 70.9F cold, 10.2 mph wind IN = run suppression, supports lower total (8.5 likely)
- Bullpen: OAK 4.87 ERA vs LAA 4.26 ERA — edge LAA in relief
Risk Factors
- Away favorite is RED zone; historical 40.9% WR contradicts the +8.9% edge. Risk-adjusted confidence reduced.
- Aldegheri despite poor grade does have some upside if LAA lineup clicks
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 59.4%
-43.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-43.7 pts
Total
9.5
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →