OAK vs NYM prediction for April 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 3.7 - OAK 3.2. NYM is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
NYM
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMOAK
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L4NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
NYM
246
Pick Results
Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
FF31%90 mph12% whiff
SL24%78 mph18% whiff
FC22%87 mph30% whiff
Kodai Senga R
NYM
FF31%95 mph18% whiff
FO27%83 mph40% whiff
FC20%90 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
62°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.932 Total: 0.959
14mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.27ERA
4.27FIP
8.50K/9
5.54BB/9
1.68WHIP
NYM
2.87ERA
3.22FIP
7.30K/9
2.95BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.2% EV
-161
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.0% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+17.8% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.2% EV
+134
F5 UNDER 4.5
+6.6% EV
-139
ML HOME
-5.9% EV
-159
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.7 runs
33.7% win
NYM F5
2.2 runs
47.7% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
79%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
21%
Francisco Alvarez NYM33.2%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK30.9%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 18.8% | vs Kodai Senga | Park: 0.96x
Mark Vientos NYM18.2%
ISO: 0.081 | Barrel: 8.1% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Kodai Senga
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAKHealthy
NYM8 injured
Juan Soto RF10-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SPDAY-TO-DAY
A.J. Minter RP15-DAY-IL
Mike Tauchman RFOUT
Nate Lavender RPDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=27)
Model projects 6.94 total (17.8% edge on UNDER 7.5, 58.9% prob) despite strong pitcher (Senga 3.34 ERA B- grade) vs. weak pitcher (Lopez 7.0 ERA C- grade). 14 mph wind in + neutral weather supports low-scoring game. NRFI at 4.3% edge is weak; prefer UNDER 7.5 as lean.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch favors NYM: Senga (B- grade, 3.34 ERA, 0.446 overall score, 24.1% K-rate) is legitimate SP vs. Lopez (C- grade, 7.0 ERA, 0.161 overall score, 15.5% K-rate, 24.1% BB-rate — extremely wild).
- Wind factor is CRITICAL: 14 mph in (strong tailwind into field) — weather multiplier 0.959 = -0.5 runs suppression. This is the single largest UNDER factor.
- Park factor (1.0, neutral Citi Field) does not inflate — Senga's elite control + Lopez's wildness in strong wind = VERY LOW SCORING expected.
- NYM bullpen (2.87 ERA, 1.568 quality) is elite. OAK bullpen (4.27 ERA, 1.054 quality) is average. Late-inning advantage NYM.
- Model 17.8% UNDER edge is real but YELLOW zone (54.1% WR, n=27) shows slight underperformance. Edge is substantial enough to lean.
Risk Factors
- Wind could shift; if it turns out, totals inflate. Citi Field wind reports can be volatile.
- OAK has Langeliers (30.9% HR prob) — one swing changes game. NYM has Alvarez (33.2% HR prob) — both teams have power.
- Lopez's 24.1% BB rate is scary — if NYM gets hits, bases get loaded quickly and explosive inning possible.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 56.5%
-8.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.2 pts
Total
7.5
+17.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →