FINAL: NYY 5 — OAK 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.7 - OAK 3.9 (NYY at 68.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
NYY
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYOAK
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L4NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 5.7 — OAK 3.9
Actual
NYY 5 — OAK 3
Pick Results
OVER 8.5totalLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Civale R
OAK
FC35%89 mph21% whiff
CU20%78 mph25% whiff
SI17%92 mph11% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF33%98 mph42% whiff
FC30%94 mph13% whiff
SI23%98 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
41°F15 mph wind
HR: 0.933 Total: 0.962
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
3.76ERA
4.47FIP
9.35K/9
4.52BB/9
1.40WHIP
NYY
3.91ERA
3.60FIP
10.08K/9
3.28BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.6% EV
+104
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-13.2% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
+190
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+6.5% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-4.4% EV
-125
ML AWAY
-3.8% EV
+200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.9 runs
26.9% win
NYY F5
3.4 runs
60.0% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
7%
Ben Rice NYY50.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 22.2% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Aaron Judge NYY50.0%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 21.7% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 1.10x
Trent Grisham NYY41.9%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Aaron Civale | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Civale
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAKHealthy
NYY6 injured
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Gerrit Cole SP15-DAY-IL
Rafael Montero RPOUT
Anthony Volpe SS10-DAY-IL
Travis MacGregor SPDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE53.0% WR (n=300)
Model projects 9.62 total runs vs market 8.5. OVER has 6.5% edge at 54.4% confidence—marginal but in a favorable zone (YELLOW, 53% WR on OVER bets). Cam Schlittler (NYY home) has elite profile (0 ERA, 30.8% K-rate, B+, 74.6 overall score), while Aaron Civale (OAK away) is solid (3.89 ERA, B- grade, 19.96% K-rate). Yankee Stadium (1.1 park factor) inflates HRs; model sees more runs than market.
Key Factors
- Schlittler profile is elite: 0 ERA (small sample), 30.8% K-rate, B+ stuff, 74.6 overall score. Civale (B-, 3.89 ERA) is inferior but not terrible.
- Yankee Stadium inflates: 1.1 park factor, elevated HR probability (Judge 50%, Rice 50%). Model sees 5.73 NYY runs, 3.89 OAK runs = 9.62 total.
- Weather is mixed: 40.6F cold suppresses, 8.2mph in-wind suppresses further (0.962x multiplier). But elite home pitcher (Schlittler) dominates weak road lineup.
- OVER zone YELLOW (53% WR on 300 bets) is neutral. Edge (6.5%) is moderate.
Risk Factors
- Schlittler's 0 ERA is a red flag for overconfidence. Real ERA likely 2.5-3.5. Model may be overweighting elite profile.
- OAK has some pop (Miguel Andrus potential HR). Low edge (6.5%) means margin of error is small.
- Market 8.5 total may already be correct for this matchup in cold weather.
PARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 68.4%
-4.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.4 pts
Total
8.5
+6.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →