OAK vs PHI prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.4 - OAK 3.9. PHI is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIOAK
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 4.4 — OAK 3.9
Actual
PHI 1 — OAK 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI36%94 mph19% whiff
CH17%88 mph35% whiff
FC16%91 mph19% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
FF38%96 mph5% whiff
SL17%88 mph42% whiff
SI13%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
64°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.999
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.48ERA
4.52FIP
8.65K/9
4.69BB/9
1.46WHIP
PHI
4.10ERA
3.36FIP
9.60K/9
3.66BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-41.2% EV
-182
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-28.5% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-10.3% EV
+102
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.4% EV
+110
NRFI NRFI
+7.2% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
+110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.1 runs
36.8% win
PHI F5
2.6 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.284 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x
Carlos Cortes OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Nick Kurtz OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
J.T. Ginn
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK3 injured
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
PHI8 injured
Christian McGowan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Rene Pinto CDAY-TO-DAY
Max Lazar RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Backhus RP15-DAY-IL
Zach Pop RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.7% WR (n=234)
Evenly matched pitchers (Painter 5.7 ERA vs Ginn 4.64 ERA, both C+ grades); modest UNDER edge 5.4% and NRFI edge 7.2% are both below 8% threshold; no actionable value.
Key Factors
- Pitcher grades both C+: Painter (5.7 ERA, 0.406 overall, stuff 0.293) vs Ginn (4.64 ERA, 0.399 overall, stuff 0.347)
- Ginn slight advantage (0.35 stuff vs 0.29 stuff); both below-average starters with high walk rates
- Weather 64°F neutral; park Citizens Bank is neutral (1.02 factor)
- NRFI 7.2% and TOTAL UNDER 5.4% both below 8% min threshold
Risk Factors
- Both pitchers prone to walks; offensive environment could surprise upward if lineups get on base
- Catcher defense matters in low-run environment; data not fully specified
WEAK EDGE SIZENEUTRAL GAME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 55.8%
-3.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.3 pts
Total
9.0
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →