OAK vs SD prediction for May 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.5 - OAK 3.8. SD is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
SD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDOAK
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (2,236 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
SD
245
Projected
SD 3.5 — OAK 3.8
Actual
SD 7 — OAK 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
FF44%91 mph13% whiff
SL24%84 mph24% whiff
CH21%79 mph40% whiff
Walker Buehler R
SD
FC23%90 mph11% whiff
FF20%94 mph7% whiff
KC15%77 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
65°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.24ERA
3.85FIP
9.06K/9
4.34BB/9
1.43WHIP
SD
3.44ERA
3.59FIP
8.20K/9
3.48BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.8% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-25.2% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.0% EV
+162
F5 UNDER 4.5
+15.0% EV
-114
NRFI NRFI
+8.6% EV
-111
F5_ML HOME
-7.7% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.0 runs
41.6% win
SD F5
1.9 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
43%
No HR
24%
Gavin Sheets SD27.2%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.90x
Nick Kurtz OAK21.5%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Shea Langeliers OAK19.1%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Walker Buehler | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Walker Buehler
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK6 injured
Denzel Clarke CF10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Hoglund SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP15-DAY-IL
Wei-En Lin PDAY-TO-DAY
SD8 injured
Jackson Merrill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE49.9% WR (n=283)
SD home team at -123 shows thin 0.5% ML edge (48.8% away prob) but UNDER 8.0 edge 4.2% (57.3% prob) is actionable in YELLOW zone for unders (49.9% WR). Walker Buehler (C+ grade, 0.396 score, weak arm) vs Jeffrey Springs (B- grade, 0.499 score, decent arm) slightly favors away, but SD park (0.9 factor suppresses runs) + cold weather (64.9F) + NRFI edge (8.6%, 57.2% prob) suggest pitcher-friendly game.
Key Factors
- Pitcher match favors away: Jeffrey Springs (B- grade, 0.499 score, 21.3% K-rate, 6.7% BB-rate) vs Walker Buehler (C+ grade, 0.396 score, 19.9% K-rate, 7.5% BB-rate) — Springs better overall, but gap is modest
- UNDER 8.0 edge 4.2% (57.3% prob) is in YELLOW zone (49.9% WR) — modestly profitable but not elite
- PETCO park factor 0.9 (strong run suppressor, -10%) is critical — lowest-scoring park in MLB besides Oracle (0.88)
- Cold weather (64.9F, neutral wind) + pitcher-friendly park = under-favorable conditions
- NRFI edge 8.6% (57.2% prob) is healthy for no-run first inning — early pitching dominance likely
Risk Factors
- OAK at home is competent; recent roster moves might make them more competitive than expected
- 4.2% UNDER edge is thin after accounting for juice on 8.0 line
- Model ML edge (0.5% away) is non-existent; totals are the only play
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.7%
-18.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.0 pts
Total
8.0
+4.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →